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特朗普和拜登的选举人团之争

发布者: 千缘 | 发布时间: 2020-9-26 01:20| 查看数: 76| 评论数: 0|



From afar, a US presidential election probably looks like a nationwide referendum on a couple of candidates,

远观美国总统大选,可能看起来像是一场对几位总统候选人进行的全民公投,

but actually it is an aggregation of elections held in each of the 50 states.

但实际上,美国大选是美国50个州分别进行选举的集合。

The more populous the state, the more votes it has in what is called the electoral college.

州人口越多,那么所谓的选举人团就拥有更多的选举人票。

Seven states have the fewest number of electoral votes, three.

有七个州拥有最少的选举人票,也就是三票。

One for the state's member of the U.S. House of Representatives and two for the state's U.S Senators.

一票是给该州的美国众议员,两票是给该州的参议员。

The district of Columbia gets the minimum three as well.

哥伦比亚特区同样也拥有最少的三张选举人票。

California, Texas, New York and Florida have the most electoral votes.

加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州、纽约和佛罗里达州拥有最多的选举人票。

The popular vote winner in each state typically gets all of the state's electoral votes.

每个州的普选获胜者通常会获得该州的全部选举人票。

The objective - win enough states to reach 270 electoral votes - a simple majority of the 538 electoral votes available.

总统候选人的目标就是赢得足够多的州以获得270张选举人票,也就是在现有的538张选举人票中获得简单的多数。

In 2016, Democrat Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by about 3 million votes,

2016年,民主党人希拉里·克林顿以大约300万张选票赢得了普选,

but Republican Donald Trump won the electoral college by more than 270 electoral votes,

但是共和党人唐纳德·特朗普获得了超过270张选举人票,赢得了总统大选,

flipping six states that voted democrat in 2012,

他颠覆了2012年投票给民主党人的6个州,

winning Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by fewer than 80,000 votes,

以不到8万张选票赢得了威斯康星州、密歇根州和宾夕法尼亚州的支持,

that’s where the 2020 political battle ground starts.

这是2020年政治斗争的起点。

Florida, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan are all states that are have been pretty competitive in recent years.

近年来,佛罗里达州、威斯康星州、宾夕法尼亚州和密歇根州竞争激烈。

They're all states that voted for Barack Obama twice.

这几个州都曾两次投票支持奥巴马。

North Carolina only voted for Obama once in 2008,

北卡罗来纳州只在2008年投票给奥巴马一次,

and Arizona hasn't voted a democratic president since uh since the 90s,

从90年代起,亚利桑那州从未投票支持过民主党总统,

and but what you're seeing in states like Arizona, North Carolina is,

但是你在亚利桑那州、北卡罗来纳州等州看到的是,

that this kind of revolt against Trump amongst white college-educated suburbanites is helping to make those states more competitive,

受过大学教育的白人郊区居民反对特朗普的行为有助于提升这些州的竞争力。

and so those are kind of the six states that most people feel like you're gonna decide the election.

所以这六个州的大多数民众觉得这样的行为,就像是你自己能决定选举。

Kyle Kondik is managing editor for Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the university of Virginia center for politics.

凯尔·康迪克是弗吉尼亚大学政治中心萨巴托水晶球的总编辑。

He is skeptical of polls suggesting a possible landslide victory for democrat Joe Biden.

民调显示民主党人乔·拜登可能获得压倒性胜利,他对此持怀疑态度。

We've had very close to competitive presidential elections in the United States this century,

本世纪举行的美国总统选举竞争非常激烈,

except arguably for for Barack Obamas seven point national victory in 2008,

除了2008年,巴拉克·奥巴马在全国范围内以七个百分点的优势获胜外,

but the other four elections were pretty close,

但其他四次的选举结果非常接近,

and so this is why I'm sort of skeptical,

这也就是我存疑的原因,

that these polls showing biden with this kind of bloated national lead,

民调显示拜登在全国各州都具有压倒性的领先优势,

are ultimately going to reflect reality come election day,

但最终会在选举日反映出真实情况,

like I do think Biden could end up winning decisively,

我确实觉得拜登可能最终会获得决定性的胜利,

but I struggle with a double-digit margin just because that's something we haven't seen in a while.

但是我纠结于两位数的差距,因为我们很久没见过这么大的差距了。

Election day is months away giving president trump plenty of time to boost his poll numbers,

距离大选日还有几个月,特朗普总统还有大把时间提高自己的民调支持数据,

if he claws back some of his support,

如果他争取到一些支持,

if he cuts it fine lead.

如果他能缩小拜登的领先优势。

We know in 2016 he was able to win the election without winning the national popular vote,

我们知道在2016年,他能够在未赢得美国普选的情况下,依旧赢得总统大选,

so if the national polls are, you know, a buying lead of, you know, say three to five points or something on election day.

你知道的,如果在选举日,全国的民调结果显示拜登领先三到五个百分点的话,

I think there's probably going to be some genuine dramas who's gonna win.

我想,那关于谁能赢得选举,可能真的就很戏剧化了。

Steve Reddish VOA news washington

美国之音新闻Steve Reddish,华盛顿报道


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