Price of lead drops 12% amid profit-taking

Lead prices took a tumble yesterday while gold slipped below the $1,000 mark and oil prices remained volatile in spite of signs of US demand reviving.

Lead dropped sharply, down 12 per cent to $2,115 a tonne, on profit-taking after a strong rally. Lead hit $2,511 on Tuesday, up 151 per cent this year, after a number of Chinese smelters were forced to close following reports that hundreds of children had been affected by lead poisoning.

However, Antaike, the state-backed Chinese research group said production lost from smelter closures would only amount to 60,000 tonnes, less than 2 per cent of national production. Stocks of lead in London Metal Exchange warehouses and Shanghai remain high and, before the latest price correction, some dealers had warned that China's lead industry had substantial spare capacity.

Antaike said China would produce 3.14m tonnes of lead this year, while consumption was estimated at 2.87m tonnes, implying an expected surplus of about 270,000 tonnes.

Zinc lost 3.5 per cent at $1,910 a tonne amid concerns about oversupply in China after Antaike also said Chinese stocks had risen to 720,000 tonnes while a further 600,000 tonnes of domestic production capacity is expected to start operations this year.

Aluminium lost 1.8 per cent at $1,854 while copper slipped 1.5 per cent to $6,280 a tonne.

Robin Bhar, senior metals analyst at Calyon has hiked his average 2010 copper forecast by 36.4 per cent to $7,500 a tonne. Mr Bhar noted that copper stocks were low for this stage of the cycle when the global economy was moving out of recession and said supply concerns would re-emerge as economic recovery spread.

铅价昨天暴跌，金价回落至1000美元关口下方，而尽管美国需求复苏，但石油价格仍然以震荡为主。

由于铅市前期大涨，市场遭遇获利回吐，铅价大幅下跌，跌幅达到12%，至每吨2115美元。铅价本周二曾摸高2511美元，使得今年年度涨幅达到151%。此前有报道说，数百名中国儿童出现铅中毒，中国大批铅冶炼工厂被强行关闭。

然而，有政府背景的中国研究集团安泰科(Antaike)表示，冶炼厂关闭导致的产能损失总计仅6万吨，还不到中国全国产量的2%。在伦敦金属交易所(LME)仓库和上海，铅库存水平依然很高，而且在最近这次价格调整之前，一些交易商就曾警告说，中国的铅冶炼行业有大量的冗余产能。

安泰科表示，中国今年的铅产量将有314万吨，而消费量估计为287万吨，这意味着约有27万吨的过剩供应量。

同样由于担心中国供应过剩，锌价下跌3.5%，因为安泰科还表示，中国锌库存已经增加到72万吨，另外60万吨的国内产能预计也将于今年投产。

铝价下跌1.8%，至1854美元；铜价下跌1.5%，至每吨6280美元。

东方汇理银行(Calyon)资深金属分析师罗宾·巴尔(Robin Bhar)将他对2010年铜价的平均预测上调了36.4%，达到每吨7500美元。巴尔指出，在目前阶段，铜库存水平非常低，而全球经济正走出衰退。他表示，随着经济复苏力度加大，市场对供应的担忧将再度出现。