The founders of Elliott Management Corporation

埃利奥特管理公司(Elliott Management Corporation)的创始人们痛恨失败。然而，在韩国，他们遇到了势均力敌的对手——目前来看是这样的。几个月前，这家纽约集团将矛头瞄准强大的三星(Samsung)，试图阻止后者两家子公司之间过于惬意的合并。

hate to lose. In South Korea, however, they have met their match — for now. A few months ago, the New York group took at shot at the mighty Samsung , seeking to block an excessively cosy merger of two of its corporate affiliates.

然而，在一场喧闹的折腾之后，埃利奥特最近以微弱劣势在股东投票中败北。有争议的合并将继续进行——尽管很多韩国小股东支持埃利奥特的行动。

However, last Friday, after a noisy campaign, Elliott narrowly lost a shareholder vote. The contentious merger will thus proceed — even though many small South Korean shareholders backed Elliott’s campaign.

投资者应该得出什么结论？一个显而易见的教训是韩国仍是个受既得利益主导的地方。

What should investors conclude? One obvious lesson is that South Korea remains a place where vested interests still dominate.

然而，还有甚至更为重要的第二点：如今埃利奥特等维权投资者在试探新的前线，即便是在韩国这样一向难搞的地方也不例外。此外，尽管三星这次胜了，但这一趋势接下来很有可能会加速——而且是在某些不太可能的地方。

However, there is a second, even more important point: these days activist investors such as Elliott are testing new frontiers, even in hitherto hostile places such as South Korea. And notwithstanding Samsung’s victory there is every chance this trend will now accelerate — and in some unlikely places.

要理解这一点，就要看看维权投资者的游戏背后的数字。摩根大通(JPMorgan)数据显示，10年前，专门的维权型基金仅管理着120亿美元。

To understand this, look at the numbers behind the activist game. A decade ago, dedicated activist funds had a mere $12bn under management, according to JPMorgan.

但是如今此类基金旗下管理的资金规模已经扩大至1200亿美元——如果你把追逐维权策略的多策略基金也包括在内的话，这个数字还要增加一倍。“如今，逾10只维权基金（维权或多策略基金）各自管理着超过100亿美元的资产，”摩根大通称。该行指出，这与“10年前整个资产类别的规模差不多”。

But today that pot has expanded in size to $120bn — or double that if you also include multi-strategy funds which are pursuing activist strategies. “Today, more than 10 activist funds (activist or multi-strategy funds) manage over $10bn each,” JPMorgan says, pointing out this is “about as much as the entire asset class 10 years ago.”

不出所料，这类基金挑起的角力也大幅增加了。据Factset称，今年以来美国已经发生了190次攻击，而2010年仅为124次。不过，更令人震惊的是攻击的成功率：5年前，维权型基金仅能赢得一半的角力。去年，它们在三分之二的角力中胜出。

Campaigns have — unsurprisingly — surged too. This year alone, there have been 190 attacks in America, up from 124 in 2010, according to Factset. More striking, though, is the success rate: five years ago, activists were only winning half of their battles. Last year, they won two-thirds.

这反映出另一个趋势：该领域正在摆脱部分鲁莽形象。在公开场合，像贝莱德(BlackRock)的拉里•芬克(Larry Fink)这样的人物常常强烈批评维权型基金，谴责其攻击所造成的短视。

This reflects another trend: the sector is shedding some of its cowboy image. In public, figures such as Larry Finkof BlackRock

但在私底下，大型资产管理公司如太平洋投资管理公司(Pimco)和先锋(Vanguard)——甚至还有贝莱德——往往在悄悄支持维权基金挑起的攻击行动。

are often highly critical of activists, deploring the short-term focus that their campaigns create.

这不仅提高了成功率，还吸引了来自主流投资者的更多资金，特别是因为其中很多投资者在当今股票和债券都偏贵的环境想方设法以赚钱的方式分散投资。“如今维权型投资机构管理的资金可能接近对冲基金全部资本的8%，”贝恩(Bain)在最近一份报告中称。

But, in private, large asset managers such as Pimco

然而，随着该领域的持续扩张，它所面临的问题（正如任何一个迅速发展的金融领域一样）是，它会不会成为自己成功的受害者。维权型基金的迅速崛起已经招致了一些政治压力。例如，有望成为民主党总统候选人的希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)，预计将在未来的竞选演讲中呼吁改变该行业的税收优惠。

and Vanguard

这种增长也带来了关于交易过度拥挤的问题。最近几年，该领域产生的年回报率超过20%。但是在经历了10年的疯狂增长后，美国企业界很多容易摘取的果实或许已经被摘走了。因此维权基金受到越来越大的压力，要求它们寻觅新的探索疆域。

— and even BlackRock — are often quietly supporting activist campaigns.

一些基金已经在通过改变在美国的目标来实践这一点。随着火力增加，维权型基金正把枪口转向较大的集团，包括苹果(Apple)等盈利的巨头。

And that has not just raised the success rate but also attracted more cash from mainstream investors, particularly since many of those are desperate to find a lucrative way to diversify their investment portfolios in a world of hyper-elevated share and bond prices. “Activist investors may now control close to 8 per cent of total hedge fund capital,” as Bain recently observed in a report.

它们还在转变关注的领域：尽管科技行业过去很少引起维权投资者的注意，但它是今年的头号靶子（据穆迪(Moody's)称，科技业占了2014年维权型基金30%的攻击目标）。各基金也把目光投向其它一些长期被忽视的行业，比如公共事业和基础设施。

As the sector keeps swelling, however, the question it faces (like any fast-growing area of finance) is whether it could become a victim of its own success. Its rapid rise is already starting to generate some political heat. Hillary Clinton, the Democratic contender in the US presidential race, for example, is expected to call for changes in the industry’s favourable tax treatment in forthcoming campaign speeches.

另一个前沿是美国以外的世界。以往亚洲和欧洲大陆等地区似乎对维权型基金非常有敌意。但是，维权投资者圈子的一些乐观者现在认为——或者希望——这种局面正开始转变。

The growth is also raising questions about overcrowded trades. In recent years, the sector has produced annual returns of more than 20 per cent. But after a decade of frenetic growth, much of the lowest-hanging activist fruit in the American corporate world may already have been plucked. The pressure is thus rising for the sector to find new frontiers to explore.

无论如何，目前尚没有确切数据支持这一点。美国维权型基金近期在亚洲赢得的唯一一场实实在在的胜利就是丹•勒布(Dan Loeb)发起的行动，他说服了神神秘秘的日本机器人集团发那科(Fanuc)提高股息。

Some funds are already doing that by changing their targets in America. As their firepower swells, activists are tilting at bigger groups, including profitable giants such as Apple.

但是，渴求酬金的美国金融家是永远的乐观者，特别是在他们可以动用的资金池不断膨胀的情况下。世界各地的公司董事会要当心了：埃利奥特在韩国受挫，也许并不标志着维权型基金故事终结。

They are also shifting sector: although tech used to attract little attention from activists, it has been the main focus for attack this year (and accounted for 30 per cent of campaigns in 2014, according to Moody’s). Funds are now eyeing other long-ignored sectors, such as utilities and infrastructure.

尤其是在投票结果如此接近的情况下。

The other frontier is the world outside America. Until now places such as Asia and continental Europe seemed very hostile towards activists. But some optimists in the activist world now think — or hope — that is starting to change.