Can Asia overcome its addiction to debt? That is the question across the region as economies slow and borrowing costs rise. After more than a decade of often blistering growth, many fear that Asia’s golden era may be drawing to a close.

亚洲能够戒掉“债瘾”吗？随着经济增长放缓和借贷成本上升，整个亚洲地区都面临这个问题。十多年来，亚洲经济大部分时间都呈高速增长，如今许多人担心，亚洲的黄金时代可能趋于结束。

When George Magnus, the economist, penned his report “Is Asia’s miracle over?” in 2012, the feedback was sceptical. Many presumed the financial crisis was little more than a bump for the world’s most dynamic region, and the rebound would prove lasting.

2012年，当经济学家乔治•马格纳斯(George Magnus)撰写《亚洲奇迹终结了吗？》(“Is Asia’s miracle over?”)这份报告的时候，人们普遍表示怀疑。许多人认为，金融危机只不过是令全球经济发展势头最为强劲的亚洲地区产生了点颠簸，该地区经济回暖后还将持续强劲增长。

But now, with exports still weak, quantitative easing in the west being unwound, and domestic economies laden with debt, the idea that the Asian boom has already peaked is rapidly going mainstream.

但就现在而言，随着出口持续疲弱，西方国家逐步退出量化宽松政策，以及亚洲各国经济债务负担沉重，亚洲繁荣见顶的观点迅速成为主流。

Asia’s economic miracle, with China at its heart, has been a driving force for the region and the rest of the world. It has halved the proportion of people living on less than $2 a day over the past decade. Average incomes have doubled in South Korea, Malaysia and Thailand, and risen more than fivefold in China and Indonesia, according to the Asian Development Bank. Since China joined the World Trade Organisation in 2002, emerging Asia’s share of global gross domestic product has risen from 11 per cent to 21 per cent, says the International Monetary Fund. The contribution to growth has been far greater.

以中国为核心的亚洲经济奇迹一直是推动该地区以及全球其他地区发展的因素。它使亚洲每日生活费低于2美元的人口所占比例在过去十年下降了一半。亚洲开发银行(ADB)的数据显示，韩国、马来西亚和泰国的人均收入增长了一倍，中国和印尼的人均收入增长了5倍。国际货币基金组织(IMF)表示，自2002年中国加入世界贸易组织(WTO)以来，亚洲新兴经济体GDP占全球GDP总额的比例从11%升至21%。亚洲新兴经济体对全球经济增长的贡献还要大得多。

Even during the financial crisis, Asia powered ahead on the back of China’s mammoth stimulus package and record low borrowing costs as central banks across the world slashed rates. Those measures boosted demand for Asian exports but, more importantly, helped companies and consumers fuel domestic growth with cheap credit.

即便在金融危机期间，由于中国推出庞大的经济刺激计划以及各国央行大幅降息导致借贷成本处于历史低位，亚洲经济继续高歌猛进。那些措施提升了全球对亚洲出口的需求，但更重要的是，在廉价信贷的推动下，它们帮助公司和消费者促进了国内经济增长。

While much has been written about China’s debt addiction, the experience is far from unique within Asia. Credit levels have risen sharply since 2008 in Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia, while already high levels of household debt in South Korea and Taiwan have tracked even higher.

关于中国“债瘾”的问题已多有论述，但这个问题在亚洲并非中国内地独有。自2008年以来，香港、新加坡、泰国和马来西亚等地的信贷水平急剧飙升，同时韩国和台湾本已高企的家庭债务水平进一步上升。

During times of accelerating growth, that might not be a cause for concern. But now much of Asia is faltering. Credit intensity – the amount of borrowing needed to generate a unit of output – has surged, while productivity growth has tumbled. The debt train appears to be fast running out of track just as the world prepares for higher interest rates.

在经济加速增长时期，这或许不值得担心。但现在许多亚洲国家的经济增长都在放缓。信贷密度——衡量创造每一单位的经济增长所需债务的指标——大幅飙升，与此同时生产率增长大幅放缓。在各国纷纷准备提高利率之际，急速行驶的债务列车似乎有脱轨的危险。

“There’s no problem in having the debt to GDP growth go up. It doesn’t have to collapse necessarily as long as you can turn around productivity growth,” says Fred Neumann, Asian economist at HSBC. “The big problem Asia faces is to implement structural reforms that are politically unpalatable before a crisis actually occurs.”

汇丰银行(HSBC)亚洲经济学家范力民(Fred Neumann)表示：“债务与GDP增长比例上升没有任何问题。只要你能够扭转生产率增长放缓态势，就不一定崩盘。亚洲面临的重大问题是，在危机真正爆发前，实施政治上不受欢迎的结构性改革。”

Asia’s traditional engine of exports is failing to fire. Thanks partly to rising costs at home and changes in the way developed economies consume, exports to the US and the eurozone have dropped from 14 per cent of developing Asia’s GDP in 2005 to just over half that level now, says HSBC.

亚洲传统的出口引擎发动不起来。汇丰表示，亚洲发展中国家对美国和欧元区的出口占其GDP的比例从2005年的14%，下跌至如今的7%，部分原因在于国内成本不断上升和发达经济体消费方式的改变。

Without the export boost, Daiwa estimates Asian economies, excluding Japan, will grow 5.8 per cent next year, from 9.2 per cent in 2010. The time when Asia grew at near double digits appears to have passed.

大和证券(Daiwa)估计，如果没有出口的推动，不包括日本在内的亚洲经济体明年将增长5.8%，而2010年的增长率为9.2%。亚洲增长率接近两位数的时代似乎已经结束。

While those rates still seem enviable compared with the west, Duncan Wooldridge, chief Asian economist at UBS, says the region now faces its own version of a recession, in which economies continue to expand but far below their historical average.

尽管与西方相比，那些增长率似乎仍令人眼红，但瑞银(UBS)亚洲首席经济学家吴德恺(Duncan Wooldridge)表示，该地区目前也面临亚洲版的低迷——经济体继续扩张，但远低于它们的历史平均水平。

“If we’ve exhausted our ability to put a high floor under [economic] growth with rapid credit growth, and we’re not going to experience a boomtime in exports, then how can growth in Asia return to its long-term path? It’s highly unlikely,” says Mr Wooldridge. “The most likely scenario is we will be stuck in a lower-growth trajectory for some time to come.”

吴德恺表示：“如果我们已经耗尽利用信贷快速增长来支持（经济）增长的能力，而且出口也不会变得强劲，那么亚洲增长如何才能回归其长期以来的轨道？这种可能性非常低。最可能的情况是，我们将在今后一段时期处于较低速增长的轨道上。”

The trend can be reversed only with deep, far-reaching reform – something that has rarely happened without a financial crisis as a spark, he adds.

他补充称，这种趋势只有通过深层次的、影响深远的改革才能扭转——在没有金融危机触发的情况下，这种改革很少发生。

The onset of tapering by the Federal Reserve could be the high water mark for the Asian miracle. Borrowing costs across the world are already ticking higher even before interest rates rise – something that will test Asia’s ability to pay back its debts.

美联储(Fed)启动退出量化宽松政策之时，可能就是亚洲奇迹见顶之日。世界各国的借贷成本甚至在利率上涨之前已经在逐步上升，这将考验亚洲的偿债能力。

The search for a new economic model will challenge policy makers and business leaders. “The basic point here is we’re not going to repeat the growth rates we had over the previous decade,” says Bruce Kasman, chief global economist at JPMorgan.

政策制定者和商界领导人将不得不寻找新的经济模式。摩根大通(JP Morgan Chase)首席全球经济学家布鲁斯•卡斯曼 (Bruce Kasman)表示：“现在的基本情况是，我们将不会再现过去十年的增长率。”

“We have an adjustment to wean economies off of a model that was very credit-dependent . . . The success or failure of that adjustment will tell you a lot about whether we find the balance with growth that isn’t as strong, but is still potentially pretty solid and positive for the global economy. History doesn’t speak too well to how these adjustments play out.”

“我们面临调整，让经济摆脱极度依赖信贷的模式……这种调整无论成功还是失败都会充分说明，我们是否找到了增长平衡点——它虽然不那么强劲，但对全球经济来说仍然有可能相当坚实和有益。历史没有很好地说明这样的调整会如何展开。”