AS PROFESSIONAL EUROPEAN soccer teams go, GalatasarayGSRAY.IS -0.84% has had a pretty strong 2013, finishing in the top slot of its league in Turkey and competing in the prestigious European Champions League with super teams like Real Madrid and Manchester United. And the Istanbul-based team has a strong future, now that it has acquired the captain of the Dutch national soccer team.
作为一支欧洲职业足球队来讲,加拉塔萨雷队(Galatasaray)在2013年的表现相当不赖,不仅在土耳其联赛中摘得桂冠,还打进声誉卓著的欧洲冠军联赛(European Champions League),跟皇家马德里(Real Madrid)和曼彻斯特联队(Manchester United)等超级强队对抗。另外它还将荷兰国家足球队队长招至麾下,前途一派光明。
But here's what makes it attractive to the elite investor, who may not know the difference between a penalty kick and corner kick: The soccer team and its publicly traded marketing unit is valued at an estimated $1 billion and is considered one of the 25 richest in the world, according to a Deloitte report.
而对于点球和角球可能都区分不开的精英投资者来说,真正吸引人的地方却在这里:据德勤(Deloitte)的一份报告,这支足球队及其上市营销公司估值为10亿美元,被认为是世界上最富有的25支足球队之一。
Not that long ago, few wealth managers would have considered Turkey or the rest of Central and Eastern Europe a legitimate investment opportunity. But wealthy investors think they've discovered a new emerging market, half a globe away from the more traditional emerging options in Brazil or Southeast Asia.
没多久之前,还没几个理财师会把土耳其或中东欧其他国家视为靠谱的投资机会。但现在富裕投资者觉得他们发现了一个新的新兴市场,与巴西或东南亚等国家更加传统的新兴投资机会隔了半个地球远。
As a growing number of pros see it, the options range from traditional government bonds to sport teams and movie studios. (For its part, Galatasaray hasn't said it wants any backers and declined requests for comment. But analysts say it's attracting some anyway.) Late last year, the Polish government─as part of its privatization policy─auctioned off Studio Miniatur Filmowych, which specializes in producing animated films, and Studio Filmowe Kronika, a production house for documentaries. Investors could bid for 85 percent of Kronika, at the starting price of $215,000. A stake in Miniatur Filmowych, which in 2010 had revenues of $1.8 million, was even more of a bargain, analysts say. The starting price was $110,000.
在越来越多的专业投资者眼中,这个区域的具体投资选项既有传统国债,也有球队和制片公司等。(加拉塔萨雷球队没有说过想吸引投资的话,并拒绝置评。但分析师说它还是吸引了一些人。)去年年尾,波兰政府根据它的私有化政策拍卖了专门制作动画片的Studio Miniatur Filmowych和专拍纪录片的Studio Filmowe Kronika。投资者可以投标购买Kronika 85%的股份,起拍价21.5万美元。分析师说,入股Miniatur Filmowych更加划算,它在2010年的收入是180万美元,起拍价才11万美元。
Look elsewhere and the price of an Eastern European movie studio is small change. In Romania, the government is selling a controlling stake in its national rail freight for $81 million. The country's postal service is for sale, too, for $112 million. Turkey, meanwhile, would like an investor to buy more than 1,200 miles of toll roads (not to mention two enormous bridges over the Bosporus Strait). The list can seem endless because the governments in this region are on aggressive privatization plans, which include health spas, pottery manufacturers and, in Poland, even an animal-breeding station.
跟其他地方比起来,东欧制片公司的价格不过就是个小零头而已。罗马尼亚政府准备以8,100万美元的价格出售其国有铁路货运公司的一笔控股股权。其邮政公司也以1.12亿美元的价格待售。而土耳其希望有投资者买下1,200多英里的收费路段(博斯普鲁斯海峡上的那两座大桥就更不用说了)。名单似乎永无止境,因为该地区各国政府都在执行激进的私有化方案,私有化对象有温泉疗养院、陶器生产商等等,甚至还有波兰的一家育种站。
Sales like these are, of course, full of risks and difficulties for foreign investors. With U.S. Treasurys still hovering around 2 percent, analysts say, the willingness to take on new investments just keeps going up. 'I see a pickup of interest, increased interest from family offices and fund of funds,' says Harvey Sawikin, founder and portfolio manager of Firebird Management, a New York-based fund that focuses on Eastern Europe.
当然对于外国投资者来说,这样的便宜货是充满了风险和困难的。分析师说,在美国国债收益率仍然只有2%左右的情况下,投资新产品的意愿不断高涨。专注东欧投资的纽约基金公司Firebird Management的创始人兼基金经理哈维•索维金(Harvey Sawikin)说:“我注意到家族办公室和母基金的兴趣提高了。”
After the fall of communism, most of the countries in Eastern Europe started from low economic bases, low gross domestic product per capita and low wage scales. It was also hammered badly during the global economic crash five years ago, which continues to make some investors jittery. But the region, with a population of several hundred million, is highly educated. Analysts also say it is highly diversified, with a domestic-demand economy and a strong exporting base. And the presence of low-cost labor makes the countries attractive manufacturing locations for companies in Western Europe.
在共产主义瓦解之后,东欧大部分国家都是从较低的经济基础、较低的人均国内生产总值和较低的薪资等级开始起步。五年前的国际经济危机期间,东欧也受到沉重打击,对此一些投资者心有余悸。但这个拥有好几亿人口的地区的受教育程度很高。分析师还说,该地区高度多元化,经济靠内需,出口基础牢固,而廉价劳动力的存在也使这些国家成为西欧企业眼中充满吸引力的制造基地。
'Just a few years ago, these countries were untouchables,' says Simon Mandel, who follows Central and Eastern European countries for Auerbach Grayson, a New York broker-dealer that specializes in emerging and frontier markets. 'Weak fundamentals, inflated valuations and anemic growth rates─there wasn't much reason to pay attention to them,' he says.
纽约Auerbach Grayson公司跟踪中东欧国家的西蒙•曼德尔(Simon Mandel)说:“仅几年前,这些国家都是碰不得的。基本面薄弱,估值过高,增长乏力,根本就没有多少理由去关注它们。”Auerbach Grayson是一家专注于新兴市场和前沿市场的经纪自营商。
Not all those reasons have evaporated. While Turkey enjoyed 3 percent growth in its gross domestic product in 2012, several other countries are limping along at less than that. And those privatization plans that open up so many opportunities have generally moved along slowly. Turkey has already cut in half the amount it expects to raise from its effort.
这些因素并没有完全消失。土耳其在2012年经历了国内生产总值3%的增长,另外好几个国家却在以更低的速度蹒跚而行。而开启了如此多机会的私有化方案总体上推进较慢,土耳其已将其预期私有化收入减半。
But otherwise, most of Eastern Europe seems to be having little problem attracting capital. In January, when Poland went to raise an additional $1 billion for a 10-year 2022 bond, it was oversubscribed by nearly five times. A 750 million euro, 10-year bond issued by the Romanian government was also oversubscribed by more than four times. Hungary increased the size of its first 2013 government bond sale by more than 50 percent following strong demand from investors seeking high yields. Turkey's stock market surged 60 percent last year.
但除开这些,大部分东欧国家似乎都没有多少引资困难。今年1月波兰增发10亿美元2022年到期的10年期债券,超额申购率接近五倍。罗马尼亚政府发行一只7.5亿欧元的10年期债券也超额认购四倍以上。在追求高收益的投资者表现出强劲需求后,匈牙利将2013年首只国债的发行额提高了50%以上。去年土耳其股市猛增60%。
For many, the region just seems like a better deal than Western Europe. Still gripped in various euro battles, a lot of traditional European options still scare off investors, and analysts think more companies will want to take advantage of Eastern Europe's cheap labor. Compared to the rest of Europe, these Central and Eastern European countries have 'half the debt [and] double the growth,' according to the Erste Group, EBS.VI +0.80% the Vienna-based bank that focuses on emerging markets.
对于很多人来讲,投资这个地区似乎就是比投资西欧划算。由于欧洲陷入多起欧元纷争且仍未摆脱,它的很多传统投资选项仍让投资者望而却步,分析师认为,希望充分利用东欧廉价劳动力的公司将越来越多。专注新兴市场的维也纳银行Erste Group说,和欧洲其他国家比起来,这些中东欧国家“债(务)半增(长率)倍”。
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