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短线观点:日本核事故吓瘫全球股市

发布者: katy | 发布时间: 2011-3-18 15:47| 查看数: 1430| 评论数: 0|

There is only a minuscule chance that Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant will turn into a new Chernobyl. The markets are doing a terrible job of trying to price the tiny risk of that disastrous outcome, as they always do for so-called “black swans”.

In the run-up to the US subprime crash, outcomes seen as highly unlikely were ignored. In Japan, the market has done the opposite, reacting as though total disaster was the base case. As Japanese equities plunged, European shares completed a correction, a fall of more than 10 per cent from their recent peak in mid-February, while US shares are down more than 5 per cent over the same period.

Société Générale points out that with $288bn knocked off the value of Japanese shares, the market seems to have assumed that companies, rather than the government, will pay for the earthquake clean-up.

Rationalising the drop in global equities is not hard. Sentiment was overextended, so the market was due for a fall anyway. After the Middle East, Japan’s quake was impossible for even the hardiest of bulls to ignore.

Assuming the worst, if a radioactive cloud engulfed Tokyo, world trade would be badly disrupted (Japan is the fifth-biggest importer), as would the global supply chain.

But there is only the slightest of chances this is the outcome. Once investors decide this is not an apocalypse, equities could snap back (deleveraging by funds sensitive to volatility might prompt more declines first). More fundamentally, futures markets are suggesting the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are less likely to raise rates, which if correct, would be good for shares.

Unfortunately, while investors panicked about the unknown in Japan, a more familiar reason for worry was back, in the form of rising tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran over Bahrain. Another oil shock could easily turn the correction into a bear market.

日本福岛第一核电站(Fukushima Daiichi)变成第二个切尔诺贝利(Chernobyl)的可能性极小。和以往对所谓的“黑天鹅事件”一样,在为这种低风险的灾难性后果进行定价方面,市场的表现相当糟糕。

在美国次贷危机爆发前,许多看似极不可能的后果被忽视了。但在日本,市场迄今的反应恰恰相反,好像彻头彻尾的灾难已是板上钉钉之事。随着日本股市暴跌,欧洲股市完成了一次回调,从2月中的高点下跌逾10%,同期美国股市下跌逾5%。

法国兴业银行(Société Générale)指出,鉴于日本股票价值缩水2880亿美元,市场似乎认为,应该由企业而非日本政府来为地震的清理工作埋单。

解释全球股市的下跌并不难。市场情绪此前过度乐观,因此下跌是本来就应该发生的事。中东爆发骚乱后,即使是最坚定的看涨人士也无法忽视日本的地震。

在最坏的情况下,如果放射云吞没了东京,全球供应链和全球贸易都将受到严重扰乱(日本为全球第五大进口国)。

但发生这种情况的几率十分微小。一旦投资者意识到这并非世界末日,股市可能会迅速反弹(一开始,对波动性十分敏感的基金的去杠杆化操作,可能会引发股市进一步下探)。更为根本的是,期货市场正暗示,欧洲央行(ECB)和英国央行(BoE)不太可能加息,如果正确,这对股市也是一种利好。

不幸的是,在投资者对日本的未知数感到恐慌的同时,一种更熟悉的不安理由再次出现:巴林局势导致沙特与伊朗之间的紧张升级。再来一场石油冲击,很容易就能将股市回调变为一个熊市。

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