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花旗推动美股大涨 前路依然难料

发布者: chrislau2001 | 发布时间: 2009-3-11 15:50| 查看数: 1015| 评论数: 1|

Stocks Leap As Citi Sees Profit





Stocks posted their first major rally of 2009 on Tuesday, giving traders and investors some respite after months of slow-drip declines.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 379.44 points, or 5.8%, to 6926.49, its biggest gain since Nov. 21, when the average jumped 6.5%.

But many market participants worried that the advance was more likely a bear-market rally that could be followed by even deeper dips. Six straight months of declines had sent the Dow to its lowest level in 12 years, off more than 50% from its October 2007 peak. Tuesday's rise restored the blue-chip benchmark to levels seen just over a week ago.

'The rally certainly is welcome, and there is no denying the market was oversold,' said Terry Morris, senior equity manager at National Penn Investors Trust Co., with about $2 billion under management. 'I hope -- I guess as we all do -- that it's not just a one-day event. I'm hoping that cash will start coming into the market.'

Investors appeared to take heart from a smattering of news from banks and the government. Traders say the upward momentum may have been further fueled when short sellers -- who sell borrowed shares with the intention of buying them when prices fall -- were forced to buy stocks to cover their bets against the market.

Worries about the solvency of the nation's largest banks subsided for the day after Citigroup Inc. Chief Executive Vikram Pandit told employees in a memo Monday night that the company was profitable in January and February. That puts the struggling New York company on track to break a streak of five straight quarterly losses totaling more than $37 billion. Mr. Pandit's note sent Citigroup up 38%. Other financial institutions gained as well, with J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. up 23%.

'I don't know anybody that expected that,' said Jeffery Harte, a banking analyst at Sandler O'Neill & Partners LP. 'That's good news for Citigroup, but it also implies that the revenue environment is better for a lot of their peers as well.'

In a sign of broad-based buying, composite trading volume on the New York Stock Exchange surpassed eight billion shares for the first time since Feb. 27. The S&P 500 Index gained 6.37%, closing at 719.60.

So far in this bear market, stocks have been unable to sustain rallies for long. The four biggest one-day gains in the past year came in October and November -- including an 11% surge on Oct. 13 -- and each time the market eventually resumed its descent. Tuesday's was the fifth-highest percentage gain in the past 12 months.

Tuesday's gain also marked the close of the first 50 calendar days after the inauguration of President Barack Obama. The Dow industrials were down 16.36% over that period, giving President Obama the second-worst mark for the period in more than a century. The industrials fell 20.76% during President Gerald Ford's first 50 calendar days in office.

Investors also appeared to take cheer when regulators in Washington said they may reinstate rules that limit short selling, potentially preventing traders from ganging up against a company's shares.

The Securities and Exchange Commission is expected to propose bringing back the 'uptick' rule as soon as next month to put brakes on short selling in falling markets. The rule prevented traders from initiating a short sale unless the price of a stock in its most recent trade was higher than the previous price.

The uptick rule was created following the stock-market crash of 1929 to prevent bearish investors from pressuring shares. After years of economic studies that showed the rule wasn't having an impact on market volatility, the SEC abolished it in 2007.

Many traders and others say the SEC's decision was one factor behind some shares' steep declines over the past two years. Some say that suspending the uptick rule had the effect of removing a market guardrail -- a decision that these people say affected investor psychology even if it didn't cause market volatility. Reinstating the rule could give the market 'a huge shot of confidence,' says Brian Bartsch, a trader with Cohen Capital Group.

One test of the market's strength will be whether the gains can be extended into Wednesday. The Dow hasn't risen for two consecutive days since Feb. 5 and 6.

'Even though we're not out of bad times yet, we are starting to increase risk,' says David Chalupnik, head of equities at First American Funds, with about $72 billion under management. But, he added, 'this is one day. I worry, because the previous one-day rallies haven't amounted to anything.'

Credit markets staged a more modest recovery from a grim week last week.

Bonds of Citigroup gained ground on the day, as did those of J.P. Morgan and General Electric Co.'s General Electric Capital Corp. unit, according to MarketAxess.

Prices of junk bonds were up slightly, but traders say the dynamic was similar to the one that helped fuel the rise in the stock market -- investors who had taken short positions on the bonds were forced to buy them to cover their positions. Investors moved out of Treasury bonds Tuesday, reflecting slightly more comfort with riskier assets. The 10-year note fell in price, which moved its yield up to 3%, up from 2.9% Monday.

Investors are still worried about the unintended consequences of some of the government's efforts to fix current economic problems.

'There are genuine rational credit fears; there's a rational expectation of worsening credit quality,' said Guy LeBas, fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott.

The market for mortgage securities backed by nonconforming mortgage loans was in free-fall as investors await more details on the government's plans to alter individuals' mortgage loans, say traders. Many securities in that market have fallen from 50 cents on the dollar to 30 cents in recent weeks, traders say.

Meantime, on the trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange, traders showed visible signs of relief. Near the closing bell, in contrast with the aspirin-popping of recent months, a couple of traders shot wads of paper into a wastebasket. Even if the rally is short-lived, the general consensus was that the break was welcome after the pounding that the markets have seen in recent months.

'We don't know if the rally is going to stick,' said Alan Valdes, a trader with Hilliard Lyons. 'But until then, it's a party.'


最新评论

chrislau2001 发表于 2009-3-11 15:51:53


经历了数月的步步走低后,美国股市周二迎来了2009年的首次大涨,交易员和投资者终于可以喘息片刻。

道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数收盘涨379.44点,至6926.49点,涨幅5.8%,创去年11月21日收盘上涨6.5%以来的最大涨幅。

然而,许多市场人士担心周二的上涨更像是一场超跌反弹,而后股指可能进一步走软。美国股市连续六个月的走低将道指压低至12年来的最低水平,较其2007年10月创下的峰值跌去了一半有余。周二的上涨不过是勉强将道指拉回到了一周前的水平。

National Penn Investors Trust Co.高级股市投资经理泰瑞•莫里斯(Terry Morris)说,反弹当然是受欢迎的,而且毫无疑问,市场处于超卖状态。他说,我希望──我猜所有人都希望──股市的反弹不会是昙花一现,希望现金开始流入股市。National Penn Investors Trust管理着约20亿美元资金。

投资者似乎从来自政府和银行的只言片语中获取了信心。交易员说此番涨势可能持续更久,因为连作空方都不得不吸纳股票来回补此前空头。



Associated Press

3月10日纽约证交所大厅一角



周二,市场对银行偿债能力的担忧有所缓解,因为花旗集团(Citigroup)首席执行长潘伟迪(Vikram Pandit)周一晚间在一份内部备忘录中表示花旗1、2月份会实现盈利,该行从而有望扭转连续五个季度亏损的颓势,目前这家身陷困境的公司累计亏损已经超过了370亿美元。潘伟迪的备忘录推动花旗股价大涨38%。其他金融机构的股票也随之上涨,摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase)涨幅高达23%。

Sandler O'Neill & Partners LP银行业分析师哈特(Jeffery Harte)说,我想没人料想到了这一点;这对花旗来说是好消息,同时这也意味着,对其他许多同类公司来说收入环境也在好转。

周二,纽约证交所自2月27日以来成交量超过了80亿股,由此可见买盘分布广泛。标准普尔500指数收盘上涨6.37%,报719.60点。

迄今为止,股票还难以在当前的熊市中维持长时间上涨。在过去一年里,四个创下最大单日涨幅的日子发生在10月和11月,其中10月13日股指甚至出现了11%的飙升,但此后市场都恢复了跌势。周二创下了过去12月中第五大单日涨幅。

周二股市以上涨为奥巴马(Obama)入主白宫50天划上了句号。道指在此期间下挫了16.36%;这是一百多年来总统就职后50天内股市表现第二差的一次;只有杰拉德·福特(Gerald Ford)任内更为糟糕,他就任总统的头50天内股市下跌了20.8%。

投资者似乎还对华盛顿监管官员有关可能重颁作空限令的说法感到欢欣鼓舞,因为这有助于防止交易员追跌某家公司的股票。

美国证券交易委员会(Securities and Exchange Commission)据信将提议,最早在下个月重新实施“报升”规则,以便限制股市下跌时的卖空行为。这个规则就是,只有在股票最近的一次报价高于前一次报价的时候,交易者才允许做空。

“报升”规则是在1929年股市崩溃后出台的,目的是防止空头打压股价。多年的经济学研究表明,该规则对市场波动并无影响,证券交易委员会遂于2007年废除了该规则。

许多交易员和其他人士认为,证券交易委员会废除该规则的决定是过去两年中一些股票急剧下跌的一个因素。一些人表示,搁置报升规则的效果相当于撤掉了市场的一个“护栏”,虽然并没有导致市场动荡,但却影响了投资者的心理。Cohen Capital Group的交易员Brian Bartsch说,恢复报升规则会给市场注入一剂强心针。

对市场坚挺势头的一个考验是看涨势能否持续到周三。自2月5-6日以来,道指就没有出现过连续两个交易日上涨的情况。

管理着720亿美元资金的First American Funds的证券主管David Chalupnik说,尽管我们还没有走出不景气时期,但我们已经开始增加风险了。但他又说,这才一天,我还是很担心,因为此前为期仅仅一天的股市反弹毫无意义。

信贷市场较严酷的上周略有复苏。

据MarketAxess的消息,花旗集团(Citigroup)、摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)和通用电气公司(General Electric Co.)旗下通用金融(General Electric Capital Corp.)的债券均持稳。

垃圾债券的价格微幅上扬,但交易员们认为其上涨的动力与促使股市上涨的原因相似--卖空垃圾证券的投资者被迫买进以平掉空头仓位。投资者周二抛售美国国债,反映出对较高风险资产的信心略有回升。10年期国债价格下跌,导致其收益率从周一的2.9%上涨至3%。

投资者仍担心政府解决当前经济困境的措施会产生意外的后果。

Janney Montgomery Scott的固定收益策略师雷伯斯(Guy Lebas)说,合理的信贷担忧切实存在;出现信贷质量恶化的预期也是正常的。

交易员们说,以不符合条件的抵押贷款作为担保的按揭证券市场急速下跌,因投资者都在等待政府出台转换个人抵押贷款计划的更多细节;最近几周,这一市场中的许多证券较票面价格的折扣幅度从此前的百分之50提高到百分之70。

与此同时,纽约证券交易所内的交易员们显示出明显的放松迹象。快收盘时,许多交易员轻松地将废纸团投进废纸蒌,这与近几个月来一到收盘大家就头痛的景象形成对比。就算这次的反弹持续不了太长时间,大家也普遍认为在最近几个月市场遭受沉重打击之后短暂地缓解一下也是好事。

Hilliard Lyons的交易员韦尔德斯(Alan Valdes)说,我们不知道反弹势头会不会保持下去,但在那之前可以放松一下。
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