花旗推动美股大涨 前路依然难料

发布者: chrislau2001 | 发布时间: 2009-3-11 15:50| 查看数: 1292| 评论数: 1|

Stocks Leap As Citi Sees Profit

Stocks posted their first major rally of 2009 on Tuesday, giving traders and investors some respite after months of slow-drip declines.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 379.44 points, or 5.8%, to 6926.49, its biggest gain since Nov. 21, when the average jumped 6.5%.

But many market participants worried that the advance was more likely a bear-market rally that could be followed by even deeper dips. Six straight months of declines had sent the Dow to its lowest level in 12 years, off more than 50% from its October 2007 peak. Tuesday's rise restored the blue-chip benchmark to levels seen just over a week ago.

'The rally certainly is welcome, and there is no denying the market was oversold,' said Terry Morris, senior equity manager at National Penn Investors Trust Co., with about $2 billion under management. 'I hope -- I guess as we all do -- that it's not just a one-day event. I'm hoping that cash will start coming into the market.'

Investors appeared to take heart from a smattering of news from banks and the government. Traders say the upward momentum may have been further fueled when short sellers -- who sell borrowed shares with the intention of buying them when prices fall -- were forced to buy stocks to cover their bets against the market.

Worries about the solvency of the nation's largest banks subsided for the day after Citigroup Inc. Chief Executive Vikram Pandit told employees in a memo Monday night that the company was profitable in January and February. That puts the struggling New York company on track to break a streak of five straight quarterly losses totaling more than $37 billion. Mr. Pandit's note sent Citigroup up 38%. Other financial institutions gained as well, with J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. up 23%.

'I don't know anybody that expected that,' said Jeffery Harte, a banking analyst at Sandler O'Neill & Partners LP. 'That's good news for Citigroup, but it also implies that the revenue environment is better for a lot of their peers as well.'

In a sign of broad-based buying, composite trading volume on the New York Stock Exchange surpassed eight billion shares for the first time since Feb. 27. The S&P 500 Index gained 6.37%, closing at 719.60.

So far in this bear market, stocks have been unable to sustain rallies for long. The four biggest one-day gains in the past year came in October and November -- including an 11% surge on Oct. 13 -- and each time the market eventually resumed its descent. Tuesday's was the fifth-highest percentage gain in the past 12 months.

Tuesday's gain also marked the close of the first 50 calendar days after the inauguration of President Barack Obama. The Dow industrials were down 16.36% over that period, giving President Obama the second-worst mark for the period in more than a century. The industrials fell 20.76% during President Gerald Ford's first 50 calendar days in office.

Investors also appeared to take cheer when regulators in Washington said they may reinstate rules that limit short selling, potentially preventing traders from ganging up against a company's shares.

The Securities and Exchange Commission is expected to propose bringing back the 'uptick' rule as soon as next month to put brakes on short selling in falling markets. The rule prevented traders from initiating a short sale unless the price of a stock in its most recent trade was higher than the previous price.

The uptick rule was created following the stock-market crash of 1929 to prevent bearish investors from pressuring shares. After years of economic studies that showed the rule wasn't having an impact on market volatility, the SEC abolished it in 2007.

Many traders and others say the SEC's decision was one factor behind some shares' steep declines over the past two years. Some say that suspending the uptick rule had the effect of removing a market guardrail -- a decision that these people say affected investor psychology even if it didn't cause market volatility. Reinstating the rule could give the market 'a huge shot of confidence,' says Brian Bartsch, a trader with Cohen Capital Group.

One test of the market's strength will be whether the gains can be extended into Wednesday. The Dow hasn't risen for two consecutive days since Feb. 5 and 6.

'Even though we're not out of bad times yet, we are starting to increase risk,' says David Chalupnik, head of equities at First American Funds, with about $72 billion under management. But, he added, 'this is one day. I worry, because the previous one-day rallies haven't amounted to anything.'

Credit markets staged a more modest recovery from a grim week last week.

Bonds of Citigroup gained ground on the day, as did those of J.P. Morgan and General Electric Co.'s General Electric Capital Corp. unit, according to MarketAxess.

Prices of junk bonds were up slightly, but traders say the dynamic was similar to the one that helped fuel the rise in the stock market -- investors who had taken short positions on the bonds were forced to buy them to cover their positions. Investors moved out of Treasury bonds Tuesday, reflecting slightly more comfort with riskier assets. The 10-year note fell in price, which moved its yield up to 3%, up from 2.9% Monday.

Investors are still worried about the unintended consequences of some of the government's efforts to fix current economic problems.

'There are genuine rational credit fears; there's a rational expectation of worsening credit quality,' said Guy LeBas, fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott.

The market for mortgage securities backed by nonconforming mortgage loans was in free-fall as investors await more details on the government's plans to alter individuals' mortgage loans, say traders. Many securities in that market have fallen from 50 cents on the dollar to 30 cents in recent weeks, traders say.

Meantime, on the trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange, traders showed visible signs of relief. Near the closing bell, in contrast with the aspirin-popping of recent months, a couple of traders shot wads of paper into a wastebasket. Even if the rally is short-lived, the general consensus was that the break was welcome after the pounding that the markets have seen in recent months.

'We don't know if the rally is going to stick,' said Alan Valdes, a trader with Hilliard Lyons. 'But until then, it's a party.'


chrislau2001 发表于 2009-3-11 15:51:53




National Penn Investors Trust Co.高级股市投资经理泰瑞•莫里斯(Terry Morris)说,反弹当然是受欢迎的,而且毫无疑问,市场处于超卖状态。他说,我希望──我猜所有人都希望──股市的反弹不会是昙花一现,希望现金开始流入股市。National Penn Investors Trust管理着约20亿美元资金。


Associated Press


周二,市场对银行偿债能力的担忧有所缓解,因为花旗集团(Citigroup)首席执行长潘伟迪(Vikram Pandit)周一晚间在一份内部备忘录中表示花旗1、2月份会实现盈利,该行从而有望扭转连续五个季度亏损的颓势,目前这家身陷困境的公司累计亏损已经超过了370亿美元。潘伟迪的备忘录推动花旗股价大涨38%。其他金融机构的股票也随之上涨,摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase)涨幅高达23%。

Sandler O'Neill & Partners LP银行业分析师哈特(Jeffery Harte)说,我想没人料想到了这一点;这对花旗来说是好消息,同时这也意味着,对其他许多同类公司来说收入环境也在好转。



周二股市以上涨为奥巴马(Obama)入主白宫50天划上了句号。道指在此期间下挫了16.36%;这是一百多年来总统就职后50天内股市表现第二差的一次;只有杰拉德·福特(Gerald Ford)任内更为糟糕,他就任总统的头50天内股市下跌了20.8%。


美国证券交易委员会(Securities and Exchange Commission)据信将提议,最早在下个月重新实施“报升”规则,以便限制股市下跌时的卖空行为。这个规则就是,只有在股票最近的一次报价高于前一次报价的时候,交易者才允许做空。


许多交易员和其他人士认为,证券交易委员会废除该规则的决定是过去两年中一些股票急剧下跌的一个因素。一些人表示,搁置报升规则的效果相当于撤掉了市场的一个“护栏”,虽然并没有导致市场动荡,但却影响了投资者的心理。Cohen Capital Group的交易员Brian Bartsch说,恢复报升规则会给市场注入一剂强心针。


管理着720亿美元资金的First American Funds的证券主管David Chalupnik说,尽管我们还没有走出不景气时期,但我们已经开始增加风险了。但他又说,这才一天,我还是很担心,因为此前为期仅仅一天的股市反弹毫无意义。


据MarketAxess的消息,花旗集团(Citigroup)、摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)和通用电气公司(General Electric Co.)旗下通用金融(General Electric Capital Corp.)的债券均持稳。



Janney Montgomery Scott的固定收益策略师雷伯斯(Guy Lebas)说,合理的信贷担忧切实存在;出现信贷质量恶化的预期也是正常的。



Hilliard Lyons的交易员韦尔德斯(Alan Valdes)说,我们不知道反弹势头会不会保持下去,但在那之前可以放松一下。
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