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保时捷增持有“术” 大众股价上演大逆转

发布者: chrislau2001 | 发布时间: 2008-10-31 09:19| 查看数: 1314| 评论数: 1|

Porsche Move Helps Send VW Shares Back To Earth

Porsche Automobil Holding SE is emerging as a potential big winner, and the target of heightened scrutiny, as hedge funds reel from billions of dollars in losses after betting wrongly that Volkswagen AG's share price would fall.

The small German sports-car manufacturer has moved closer to securing control of much-larger rival VW through a stealth strategy relying on sophisticated derivative instruments, and has been able to book big paper profits in the process.

Bafin, Germany's securities regulator, said Wednesday that it had begun a formal investigation into VW's share-price movements for signs of market manipulation. It declined to comment on whether it was investigating any individuals in particular. Porsche said in a statement it 'denies all responsibility' for recent market distortions.

Continuing its gyrations, VW's share price plunged 45% to 517 euros ($656) Wednesday after Porsche said it planned to sell as much as 5% in options tied to VW shares. VW's shares had soared 348% over the two previous sessions -- briefly making it with world's most valuable publicly traded company -- fueled by Porsche's disclosure Sunday that it had boosted its VW stake to 42.6% and held so-called cash-settled options linked to another 31.5% of VW's shares.

Porsche said Wednesday it didn't break any disclosure rules by quietly building an ever-larger position in VW through the use of cash-settled options. Cash-settled options, which are settled in cash instead of shares, don't need to be disclosed to regulators under German law.

But a Porsche spokesman acknowledged that the company has made a 'sizable profit' this year from the use of such derivatives, adding that it could help finance its VW takeover. VW is Europe's largest car manufacturer by sales, rolling out six million vehicles a year, compared with Porsche's annual output of 100,000.

'We are a very small company buying into a very big company. That is not something you can afford if everybody is able to read your strategy in the newspaper,' said Frank Gaube, a Porsche spokesman.

Porsche discreetly began buying VW options in 2005, when it first took a 20% stake in the company. Many of those options are believed to be priced below 200 euros and in some cases even below 100 euros, allowing Porsche to pocket the difference when VW's shares are much higher. That could add up to billions of euros at current prices if the options are exercised.

In the previous fiscal year ended July 31, 2007, Porsche said it made 3.59 billion euros in pretax profit from stock-options transactions, more than it earned from the sale of cars.

The weekend disclosure by Porsche that it was gunning for a 75% stake in VW forced investors who sold VW shares short in recent weeks and months to reverse gear and buy shares to cover bets that the price would fall. In the process, hedge funds lost more than $20 billion, according to some market estimates.

Despite Wednesday's downturn, VW's share price is still more than double Friday's close of 210.85 euros, leaving short sellers on the hook for major losses. Investors say Porsche misled financial markets in recent months by indicating it wouldn't aim for a 75% stake.

Arndt Ellinghorst, a London-based auto sector analyst at Credit Suisse, said Porsche's recent moves proved that the company is 'one of the most sophisticated investors on the planet, as well as being a car maker.'

But many also say that Porsche risks over-stretching and question whether the car maker will have sufficient funds to finance a 75% holding in VW. If VW's share price falls, it could slash profits on Porsche's options and reverse gains from other derivatives it holds. A stake of more than 50% in VW also could force Porsche to make an offer for all of Scandinavian truck maker Scania, where VW is the largest shareholder.

最新评论

chrislau2001 发表于 2008-10-31 09:21:12


冲基金错误地预计大众汽车(Volkswagen AG)股价将下挫,进而遭受了数十亿美元的损失,而保时捷(Porsche Automobil Holding SE)却因此成为潜在的大赢家,也成了严查的目标。

借助以复杂衍生工具为主的秘密策略,生产跑车的德国小型车商保时捷离获得大众的控制权已越来越近,而且在此过程中还获得了巨大的“纸面”利润。



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大众公司在沃尔夫斯堡的车库



德国证券监管机构周三称,已经开始对大众股价走势进行正式调查,以确定是否有市场操纵行为的迹象。该机构拒绝透露是否正在对特定的个人进行调查。保时捷在一份声明中否认对最近的市场动荡负有任何责任。

在保时捷称计划卖掉至多5%的大众股票期权后,大众股价周三接续此前的大起大落,再次暴跌45%至每股517欧元(合656美元)。大众股价此前两个交易日累计暴涨了348%,令该公司一度成为世界上市值最高的公开上市公司,原因之一是保时捷周日透露说,已经增持大众股份至42.6%,并持有与大众另外31.5%股份相关联的所谓现金结算期权。

保时捷周三表示,自己利用现金结算期权悄悄增持大众股权的做法并没有违反任何有关信息披露的规定。现金结算期权以现金而不是股票结算,根据德国的法律,这类工具不需要向监管机构披露。

不过,保时捷的发言人承认,该公司今年利用这样的衍生品已经赚取了相当大的利润,并表示这可能有助于其为收购大众准备资金。大众是欧洲销量最大的汽车厂商,年产量达600万辆,而保时捷的年产量为10万辆。

保时捷的发言人弗兰克•高博(Frank Gaube)说,我们收购大众是在上演蛇吞象;如果人人都能在报纸上看到你的策略,那么买卖就做不成了。

保时捷2005年买进了大众20%的股份,之后开始秘密买进该公司的期权。其中很多期权的价格据信不到200欧元,有些甚至不到100欧元,这样保时捷得以在大众股价上涨时获得差价。以当前的股价计算,如果这些期权被行权的话,保时捷将获利数十亿欧元。

保时捷表示,在截至2007年7月31日的财政年度,公司从股票期权交易中获得的税前利润为35.9亿欧元,比销售汽车获得的利润还要多。

保时捷周日透露说,计划收购大众75%的股份;这一消息迫使那些在近几周和几个月里卖空大众股票的投资者掉过头来买进大众股票做回补。据某些市场估计数据,在此过程中,对冲基金损失了200多亿美元。

尽管周三暴跌,大众股价仍较上周五210.85欧元的收盘价高了一倍多,因此卖空投资者可能仍会遭受惨重损失。投资者表示,保时捷最近几个月暗示未计划收购大众75%的股份,这给市场造成了误导。

瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)驻伦敦的汽车行业分析师阿恩特•埃林霍斯特(Arndt Ellinghorst)说,保时捷最近的诸多举措表明,该公司不仅是一家汽车生产商,还是世界上最老道的投资者之一。

不过,很多人也认为保时捷可能会扩展过度,并对其是否有充足资金来收购大众75%股份表示怀疑。如果大众股价下跌,保时捷持有的期权利润可能会大幅降低,抵消掉其持有的其他衍生品带来的收益。持有大众50%以上的股份还可能迫使保时捷全盘收购斯堪的纳维亚卡车厂商Scania,大众是这家公司最大的股东。
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