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俄罗斯似将出现一波经济震荡

发布者: chrislau2001 | 发布时间: 2008-9-25 11:37| 查看数: 1489| 评论数: 1|

Russia Appears Set for a Shakeout

Days after the Kremlin unveiled a $120 billion rescue package that steadied Russian financial markets, signs that the crisis is set to spur consolidation and a slew of bankruptcies emerged. On Monday, a billionaire businessman bought a 50% stake in one of Russia's largest investment banks in what he said was a sign of things to come.

Metals magnate Mikhail Prokhorov paid $500 million for new equity equal to a 50% stake in Renaissance Capital, the investment-banking business of Moscow-based Renaissance Group. Analysts said Mr. Prokhorov got a bargain, since Renaissance had been estimated to be worth at least several billion dollars before the crisis.

The deal came as the Kremlin announced fresh measures to ease liquidity, suggesting it believes the banking system remains fragile. State-controlled banks have begun to throw lifelines to smaller private rivals that have run into trouble, in some cases with a view to acquiring them. Leading retailers have also begun to change hands or strike emergency refinancing deals. Cellphone retailer OAO Euroset, one of the country's biggest, got a new owner Monday, while closely held electronics retailer, Eldorado, accepted a loan that its creditor says may be converted into an ownership stake.

'The strongest companies will survive, and others will cease to exist,' predicted Mr. Prokhorov, regularly listed as one of Russia's wealthiest individuals. The crisis was a 'peak time' for acquisitions, he added, singling out banks, real estate and construction firms as particularly vulnerable.

Mr. Prokhorov and Renaissance Group said they had been discussing the deal for 'several months,' but that market turmoil last week -- when Russian markets suffered their biggest drop in a decade -- had 'accelerated' the process.

'The rules for investment banking have been totally rewritten,' said Stephen Jennings, chief executive of Renaissance Group. He said he was keen to share risk, access fresh capital and gain strong local partners. Alexander Pertsovsky, CEO of the banking business, said the freshly refinanced entity would occupy a 'unique niche,' possibly boasting more capital than any other investment bank in the world because of global restructuring.

The banking sector had already begun to feel the pinch. Last week, the pension-fund arm of energy giant OAO Gazprom agreed to buy brokerage business KIT Finance after it failed to meet some of its obligations. Moody's Investor Services on Monday cut debt ratings for Svyaz-Bank, saying the bank had defaulted on its obligations and that its capital had been 'significantly damaged.' It added that it understood the bank was in talks with 'publicly undisclosed parties with regard to possible mechanisms for further support.' A Svyaz-Bank representative declined to comment.

Renaissance's Mr. Jennings said the crisis was spurring 'long overdue' consolidation. 'Russia doesn't need 900 banks,' he said in an interview. 'It needs about 10 big banks.'

Analysts said the crisis might also affect a fierce shareholder conflict at OAO Norilsk Nickel, where two wealthy businessmen are vying for control. The company's share price has fallen so low that it could be a great chance for either of the businessmen to snap up shares at bargain prices. 'It could change things tactically,' said Steven Dashevsky, head of equities at Unicredit Aton brokerage in Moscow.

Meanwhile, Russian stocks inched higher Monday after bouncing back on Friday after a week of heavy losses. The ruble-denominated MICEX exchange finished 0.62% higher, while the dollar-denominated RTS exchange was up 1.05%.

Analysts said markets would likely start making solid gains though only when the situation in the U.S. became more stable. 'Russia cannot detach itself from the global economy,' said Mr. Dashevsky.

Last week, the government assembled a rescue package valued at $120 billion to shore up the banking system. On Monday, it offered greater relief, suggesting that liquidity levels haven't been fully restored. The government extended a deadline for value-added-tax payments by three months to ease liquidity. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin ordered the Finance Ministry to consider raising the size of bank deposits covered by government guarantees.

Mr. Putin told a cabinet meeting that the Kremlin's anticrisis measures were working. 'The market situation has stabilized,' he said.

Andrew Osborn

最新评论

chrislau2001 发表于 2008-9-25 11:38:22


罗斯政府日前推出1,200亿美元稳定金融市场的拯救计划后,目前已有迹象显示,这场危机将推动行业整合,并导致众多企业破产。周一,一名亿万富商购买了俄罗斯最大投行之一50%的股份。这名富商认为,这便是征兆。

金属行业巨头米哈伊尔•普罗霍洛夫(Mikhail Prokhorov)用5亿美元购买了总部在莫斯科的复兴集团(Renaissance Group)旗下投行Renaissance Capital的50%股份。分析人士认为,普罗霍洛夫拣了个大便宜,危机前Renaissance Capital的估值至少也有几十亿美元。



ITAR-TASS /Landov

总理普京率领若干部长开会



这笔交易发生在俄罗斯政府宣布了加强金融市场流动性的新举措之际。俄政府此举表明它认为银行体系仍然脆弱。国有银行已经开始帮助经营陷入困境的中、小私有银行,某些情况下还会考虑出手收购。主要零售企业也开始出现经营权易手的情况,还有一些正在达成紧急融资协议。周一,俄罗斯最大的移动电话零售商之一OAO Euroset经营权易手。与此同时,少数人持股的电子产品零售商Eldorado也接受了一笔贷款,其债权人表示日后可以债转股。

“最强大的公司将生存下去,其它的将灭亡,”经常在俄罗斯富豪榜上名列前茅的普罗霍洛夫预言道。他补充说,这场危机是并购的“高峰时段”,银行、房地产公司和建筑企业最易成为猎物。

普罗霍洛夫和复兴集团表示,其收购Renaissance Capital的交易已经谈了“好几个月”,但上周的市场动荡加速了谈判进程。俄罗斯市场上周遭遇了十年来最严重的下跌。






复兴集团首席执行长斯蒂芬•詹宁斯(Stephen Jennings)说:“投资银行的规则被彻底重写了。”他说自己急于找人分担风险、获得新资金并获得强有力的本地合作伙伴。该集团银行业务的首席执行长亚历山大•波特索夫斯基(Alexander Pertsovsky)说,获得新资金的Renaissance Capital将拥有“独特地位”,有可能因本轮全球企业重组而拥有比其他投资银行更多的资金。

银行业已开始感受到资金短缺的压力。上周,俄罗斯能源业巨头OAO Gazprom的退休基金在经纪公司KIT Finance无法偿还部分债务之后同意购买这家公司。穆迪投资者服务公司(Moody's Investor Services)周一下调了Svyaz-Bank的债务评级,称该银行已经出现了拖欠债务的情况,其资金实力遭受“重创”。穆迪投资者服务公司还说,它知道Svyaz-Bank正在就“获得进一步支持的可能机制与一些未公开披露的方面”进行谈判。一位Svyaz-Bank的代表拒绝对此发表评论。

复兴集团首席执行长詹宁斯说,这场危机加快了“拖延已久”的行业整合。“俄罗斯并不需要900家银行,”他在接受采访时说,“俄罗斯大约需要10家大银行。”

分析人士认为,当前的危机可能还会对俄罗斯诺里尔斯克镍业公司(AO Norilsk Nickel)激烈的股东大战产生影响。两位富商正在争夺该公司的控制权。这家公司的股价已跌得很低,为两人廉价吞入大量股票创造了绝好机会。“局势有可能因此发生战略性转变,”莫斯科经纪公司Unicredit Aton的股票业务部负责人史蒂文•达舍夫斯基(Steven Dashevsky)说。

与此同时,俄罗斯股市经过一周的暴跌和周五的反弹后,周一小幅上涨。成份股以卢布交易的MICEX指数上涨0.62%,成份股以美元交易的RTS指数上涨1.05%。

分析人士认为,股市有可能开始稳步上涨,但前提是在美国的形势更趋稳定的情况下。“俄罗斯无法与世界经济相隔离,” 达舍夫斯基说。

上周,俄罗斯政府推出了规模达1,200亿美元的一揽子拯救措施,以稳定银行体系。周一,俄政府又出台规模更大的拯救行动,此举表明金融体系的流动性仍未完全恢复。政府将缴纳增值税的最后期限延长了三个月,以缓解流动性紧张局面。总理普京(Vladimir Putin)下令财政部考虑上调政府提供担保的银行存款额。

普京在内阁会议上说,政府的抵御危机措施正在见效。“市场局势已经稳定,”他说。

Andrew Osborn
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