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Pound May Continue to Weaken

发布者: chrislau2001 | 发布时间: 2008-9-9 11:45| 查看数: 1792| 评论数: 1|

After holding its own against the U.S. dollar throughout the financial crunch, the British currency could be in for a prolonged pounding.

Already down nearly 10% against the dollar over the past month, the pound faces a crisis of confidence as investors fret about U.K. policy makers' efforts and ability to manage a sharp economic downturn. While short-term surges are likely, analysts and economists see deeper issues that could cause it to slide further.

The bleak outlook stems from a confluence of factors. For one, while the credit crunch will prove punishing for the U.S., the prospects for the U.K. are increasingly worse.

Many forecasters believe the British economy is already in a contraction that will last at least through the end of this year. The gloomy outlook, together with waning inflation fears, increases the odds that the Bank of England will lower interest rates, lowering the returns investors can reap by putting their money in pounds.

More important, conflicting messages from the U.K. government have raised concerns among traders and investors that policy makers don't have a handle on the depth of the country's economic woes, or on how to respond.

Those concerns, together with a heavy consumer-debt burden and housing bust that make the U.K. look very similar to the U.S., threaten to erode the pound's role as an alternative haven to the dollar for investors and the world's central banks.

'Sterling had managed to claim such a high status among investors,' says Stephen Jen, head of global currency research at Morgan Stanley in London, noting that the pound had been gaining prominence as a reserve currency for central banks in recent years. 'I am concerned that this trend may be reversed.'

Carrick Mollenkamp / Mark Whitehouse

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chrislau2001 发表于 2008-9-9 11:45:33

英镑或继续走软

在金融危机中,英镑兑美元汇率一直保持坚挺,但现在英镑却可能面临遭受长期打击的命运。

过去一个月内,英镑兑美元已经下滑了近10%,目前英镑更面临着一场信任危机,原因是投资者担心英国决策者能否采取行动以及是否有能力处理急剧下滑的经济。虽然英镑汇率短期内有可能上涨,但众多分析师和经济学家都认为,有一些更深层次的问题可能导致英镑进一步滑坡。

暗淡的前景是一系列因素合力所致。一方面,虽然信贷危机对美国来说是最厉害的,但英国的前景也越来越糟糕。

许多预测者认为,英国经济已经陷入紧缩,并至少会持续到今年年底。这样的前景加上对通胀的担忧逐渐减弱,增大了英国央行(Bank of England)减息的可能性,从而降低投资者们买进英镑所能获得的收益。

更重要的是,英国政府发出了自相矛盾的信息,令交易商和投资者更加担心决策层不清楚英国的经济困境有多深,或是不知道该如何应对。

这些担心,加上沉重的消费者债务负担和房市的问题令英国的情况与美国非常相似,这一切令英镑难以成为投资者和全球央行在美元之外的避风港。

摩根士丹利驻伦敦全球货币研究主管任永力(Stephen Jen)说,英镑已经在投资者中建立了很高的地位,他指出,近年来英镑已经成为各国央行越来越重要的储备货币,他担心这种趋势会出现逆转。

Carrick Mollenkamp / Mark Whitehouse
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