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Goldman's Cracks: Earnings Set to Slide

发布者: chrislau2001 | 发布时间: 2008-9-9 11:33| 查看数: 1511| 评论数: 1|

Goldman Sachs Group might not be so golden this quarter.

The Wall Street investment bank has hardly emerged unscathed from the credit crunch. But compared with Lehman Brothers Holdings and Merrill Lynch, Goldman has made it look easy.

Not so this quarter. When the firm reports earnings on Sept. 16, it won't be pretty.

There is no obvious sign of big trading losses. But the third quarter wasn't kind to most of Goldman's businesses, as trading activity and investment-banking business swooned.

In recent weeks analysts have cut earnings estimates to $2.13 a share, or $953 million, from $3.29 a share Aug. 15, according to Thomson Reuters. That probably remains too high. The few analysts at $1.50 a share may look smartest. Goldman earned $6.13 a share, or $2.85 billion, in the year-earlier period.

The main culprit: Trading volumes across certain products dropped drastically in August. For example, monthly U.S. equity volumes fell 30% year-on-year, according to NYSE Euronext. This drop will ripple through a host of Goldman's operations. Less client trading will cut into profitable businesses such as prime brokerage. This is all likely to hit the firm's principal and trading-business line, which accounted for 59% of revenue in the second quarter.

Investment banking, another profitable business, also has been weak. In August, for example, Goldman's completed mergers-and-acquisitions volume fell almost 60% globally from 2007, according to Thomson Reuters.

And there are likely to be write-downs from the firm's $17 billion commercial real-estate portfolio.

Investors are in for a shock. Goldman is mortal after all.

Susanne Craig


最新评论

chrislau2001 发表于 2008-9-9 11:34:08

高盛三季度收益不甚乐观

高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group)这个季度可能既没那么“高”也没那么“盛”。

这家华尔街投行在信贷危机中差点没能全身而退。不过与雷曼兄弟控股(Lehman Brothers Holdings)和美林(Merrill Lynch)相比,高盛让这一切看起来还算轻松。

然而这个季度不会再如此了。高盛9月16日将公布收益报告,到时候可不会那么好看。

虽然没有明显的迹象显示高盛出现了巨大的交易损失,但是随着交易活动和投行业务的低迷,第三季度高盛的很多业务都处境艰难。

据汤森路透(Thomson Reuters Corp.)的数据,近几周分析师已经将该公司的每股收益预期从8月15日的3.29美元下调至2.13美元,总收益也缩水至9.53亿美元。即使降到这个水平,期望仍可能还是过高。少数预期每股收益为1.50美元的分析师或许才是最明智的。高盛去年同期的每股收益为6.13美元,总收益为28.5亿美元。

罪魁祸首是:某些产品的交易量8月份出现大幅下滑。举例来讲,据纽约泛欧交易所集团(NYSE Euronext)的数据,月度美国股票交易量较去年同期减少了30%。这会进而波及到高盛的其他一系列业务。客户交易量减少会损害机构经纪等盈利能力强的业务。这些都很可能对高盛的主要业务和交易业务带来冲击,此类业务二季度占了高盛总收入的59%。

高盛的另一个盈利业务──投行也很疲弱。举例来讲,据汤森路透的数据,8月份,高盛完成的全球并购交易量较2007年几乎下滑了60%。

除此之外,该公司170亿美元的商业房地产投资组合很可能会发生冲减。

投资者可能会大吃一惊。高盛毕竟不是金刚不坏之身。

Susanne Craig
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