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全球IPO市场8月静悄悄

发布者: chrislau2001 | 发布时间: 2008-9-2 12:57| 查看数: 1610| 评论数: 1|

The global market for new-stock issues set a record in August that is nothing to brag about: The lowest number of deals since data provider Dealogic began tracking them in 1995.

Just 25 companies priced their initial public offerings of stock somewhere in the world last month, raising $1.25 billion, according to Dealogic. That is the ninth-smallest amount of money raised in a month.

August is traditionally a quiet IPO time, but this one was a sleeper even compared with August 2007, when 88 companies raised $8.18 billion around the globe. Figures exclude real-estate investment trusts and special purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs.

Every major region, from Europe to Asia to North America, showed a precipitous drop in completed IPOs.

'General market conditions have obviously been extremely challenging, led by financial-sector stocks, from banks to mortgage insurers and mortgage companies,' said David J. Topper, vice chairman of equity capital markets at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.

He said he thinks most potential IPO candidates are waiting for market conditions to improve before launching their deals.

When those market conditions will improve, however, is anyone's guess. In a typical year, the IPO market pauses in late August before revving to life again, usually by mid-September. This year, it is contending with dismal stock markets around the world. The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index, while up in August, has dropped 21% this year, and Asian markets have posted double-digit declines. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 13% this year. When markets are bad, investors generally shun the risk of an untested company.

While no one anticipates an early-autumn revival, there could be some pickup in the fourth quarter, said Thomas B. Fox Jr., head of global capital markets for the Americas at UBS AG.

'If we can get through the next couple of months to find some stability in the broader market and people could then refocus on 2009 earnings expectations, you could make the case that we could have an increase and [better performance] in IPOs during the fourth quarter,' he said.

Some of that stability needs to come from the financial sector, which has been hit month after month by giant write-downs, dilutive stock sales and bank failures.

'A lot of the problems that have been plaguing the markets are still going on. The financial sector still has issues to work through, and that will take another quarter or two, which will weigh on the market,' J.P. Morgan's Mr. Topper said. 'I certainly don't see conditions changing immediately post-Labor Day. I think 2008 overall, frankly, is going to be a pretty slow year if certain fundamentals don't improve.'

Elsewhere in the IPO market:

-- In an unexpected shift, the number of IPOs withdrawn or postponed world-wide during the month declined to 13, its lowest level since September 2007, when eight were pulled, according to Dealogic.

August's number represents a significant improvement from July, when 33 deals were scratched. However, the decline could be caused by fewer companies attempting to navigate the headwinds of the current market, and thus fewer deals needing to be pulled.

Lynn Cowan

[ 本帖最后由 shunitang 于 2008-9-3 09:56 编辑 ]

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chrislau2001 发表于 2008-9-2 13:34:39

For IPOs In August, A Sound Of Silence

数据提供商Dealogic的资料显示,8月份全球新股发行市场创下了一个并不值得夸耀的历史纪录:当月的新股发行交易是Dealogic自1995年有相关记录以来最低的。

据Dealogic的数据,8月份全球只有25家公司进行了首次公开募股(IPO),筹资总额为12.5亿美元,这一月度筹资额也排在历史倒数第九位。

8月份一向是IPO的传统淡季,但上月的IPO数量较上年同期出现了显著下滑;去年8月全球总共有88家公司进行了IPO,共筹资81.8亿美元。上述数据不涉及房地产投资信托和特殊目的收购公司(SPAC)。

从欧洲到亚洲以至北美,几乎每个主要市场都出现了IPO完成交易量骤然下降的情况。

摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.)股权资本市场副董事长大卫•托普(David J. Topper)表示,总的市场环境显然非常严峻,从银行到抵押贷款保险商以及抵押贷款公司,金融类股表现最为低迷。

他认为,有意进行IPO的公司正在等待市况转好后再做交易。

但谁也不知道市况到底何时才能好转。通常来说,IPO市场会在8月底稍作休整,随后(一般是9月中旬)重振旗鼓。但今年IPO市场遭遇了全球股市普遍低迷的不利状况。尽管8月份有所回升,但道琼斯欧洲斯托克600指数今年累计下挫了21%,亚洲股市更是出现了两位数的跌幅。道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数今年累计下跌了13%。市场状况糟糕的时候,投资者通常不愿贸然投资未经考验的公司。

广告瑞士银行(UBS AG)驻美国的全球资本市场主管托马斯•福克斯(Thomas B. Fox Jr.)说,虽然没人指望IPO市场能在初秋回升,但第四季度有所反弹却是可能的。

他说,如果我们可以熬过未来两个月,坚持到整体市场有所稳定,届时投资者可能会再次关注企业2009年的收益预期,那么第四季度IPO市场可能会有所回升,表现也会好转。

股市稳定一定程度上要倚仗金融类股的表现。受巨额资产冲销、发股筹资稀释股权以及银行破产问题打击,过去数月金融类股表现惨不忍睹。

摩根大通的托普表示,重创市场的很多问题仍然存在。金融类股仍有诸多问题需要解决,这个过程可能还需要一到两个季度,这段时间内市场还会承受压力。他说,指望市况在劳工节过后突然好转是不可能的;他认为,坦率地说,如果某些基本面因素没有好转,2008年将成为相当低迷的一年。

IPO市场的其他方面:

--令人意外的是,据Dealogic的数据,8月份全球共有13起IPO交易被取消或推迟,这是2007年9月以来的最低水平,那个月为8起。

8月份这一数据较7月份有了显著好转,7月份共叫停了33笔IPO交易。不过,这一数据下降可能是因为越来越少的公司打算逆势挑战当前的低迷市场,因此也没多少交易需要取消。

Lynn Cowan

[ 本帖最后由 shunitang 于 2008-9-3 09:57 编辑 ]
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