A weak economy and limited evidence of higher crude-oil prices spreading to other goods and services provided Bank of Canada officials with comfort in leaving its key policy rate unchanged this month, according to minutes published Wednesday.

根据周三公布的会议纪要，加拿大经济疲软，加之缺乏有力证据表明原油价格上涨正在向其他商品和服务传导，这为加拿大央行官员本月维持关键政策利率不变提供了信心。



The Bank of Canada kept its main interest rate steady on June 10, at 2.25%, or the fifth straight decision without a change. The minutes indicate an agreement among the top six senior policymakers, led by Gov. Tiff Macklem, that this was appropriate to balance the risks of upward price pressures and a struggling economy that unexpectedly shrank for two consecutive quarters.

加拿大央行于6月10日将主要利率维持在2.25%不变，这已是连续第五次按兵不动。 会议纪要显示，以行长蒂夫·麦克勒姆为首的六位最高决策层官员一致认为，维持利率不变是恰当的，以平衡价格上行压力与经济低迷两方面的风险——加拿大经济出人意料地连续两个季度萎缩。

"In responding to the rise in inflation, the governing council did not want to overreact, but nor did it want to be too slow to respond," according to the minutes, which cover deliberations that started on June 4.

根据会议纪要，会议于6月4日开始讨论，“在应对通胀上升的过程中，管理委员会既不想过度反应，也不想反应过于迟缓”。

Senior officials "agreed to emphasize in its communications that the bank remains ready to respond to changing economic circumstances to fulfill its commitment to price stability." The Bank of Canada sets interest rates to achieve and maintain 2% inflation.

高级官员“一致同意在对外沟通中强调，央行仍随时准备根据经济形势的变化做出应对，以履行其对价格稳定的承诺”。加拿大央行通过设定利率来实现并维持2%的通胀目标。

The deliberations and subsequent rate decision unfolded before the U.S. and Iran reached a tentative pact that would restart oil-tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Crude-oil prices have since retreated, and are now roughly 26% lower than an early June peak. A barrel of crude oil is now trading about 10% higher than levels prior to start of U.S. and Israeli strikes across Iran.

上述讨论及随后的利率决定，发生在美国与伊朗达成重启霍尔木兹海峡油轮通行的临时协议之前。 此后原油价格有所回落，目前较6月初的高点已下跌约26%。 当前一桶原油的价格较美国和以色列对伊朗发动打击前的水平高出约10%。

Macklem told reporters while in Paris this week that the U.S.-Iran pact now removes some of the upside risk to inflation. Further, he said May inflation, up 3.2%, was inline with central bank expectations, with upward pressure concentrated in the energy sector.

麦克勒姆本周在巴黎对记者表示，美伊协议如今已消除了一部分通胀上行的风险。 他还表示，5月份通胀率为3.2%，符合央行的预期，价格上涨压力主要集中在能源领域。

"We are not seeing, so far anyways, much spreading of higher oil prices to prices of other goods and services," he said.

他说：“到目前为止，我们还没有看到油价上涨大幅向其他商品和服务价格传导的迹象。”

According to the minutes, the six-member governing council viewed the economy as weak, following a surprise first-quarter report that suggested output shrank for a second straight month.

会议纪要显示，六人管理委员会认为，在令人意外的第一季度经济报告出炉后——该报告表明产出连续第二个月萎缩——经济表现疲软。

The economy "was still operating in excess supply and there was slack in the labour market. But the economy was not clearly in recession," the minutes said.

会议纪要称，经济“仍处于供大于求的状态，劳动力市场也存在闲置。 但经济尚未明显陷入衰退”。

Members also noted the first-quarter decline in gross domestic product, estimated at 0.1% annualized, was fueled by an unexpected decline in government spending, adding that public-sector outlays "can be choppy from one quarter to the next," according to the minutes.

成员们还指出，第一季度国内生产总值年化萎缩0.1%，主要原因是政府支出出人意料地下降，并补充说，公共部门支出“每个季度之间可能波动较大”。

Members added that consumer spending rose 1.4% in the January-to-March period, and 2% on a per-capital basis, suggesting some resilience among households.

成员们补充说，1月至3月期间消费者支出增长了1.4%，人均增长2%，这表明家庭部门仍具有一定韧性。

The minutes suggested that senior officials expect economic growth to resume in the second quarter.

会议纪要显示，高级官员预计第二季度经济将恢复增长。

Most economists expect the Bank of Canada to keep its benchmark rate unchanged through 2026, due to weak economic activity.

多数经济学家预计，由于经济活动疲软，加拿大央行将在2026年全年维持基准利率不变。

Canadian growth is under pressure from uncertainty posed by U.S. trade policy, which maintains hefty tariffs on key industrial sectors. Furthermore, the U.S. and Canada appear far apart on trade talks, according to U.S.

加拿大经济增长面临美国贸易政策不确定性带来的压力，美国对关键工业部门维持高额关税。 此外，据美国官员称，美加两国在贸易谈判上分歧依然很大。

Next week, a U.S.-led formal review begins of the existing U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade pact, known as USMCA. Most Canadian officials and trade analysts don't expect an imminent agreement to renew the deal for another 16 years. In that scenario, the pact could be subject to annual reviews for the next decade—with the deal collapsing 2036 failing an agreement beforehand.

下周，由美国主导的对现有《美墨加协定》的正式审议将启动。 多数加拿大官员和贸易分析师预计，短期内不会就该协定再续签16年达成一致。 在这种情况下，该协定可能在未来十年内每年接受审议——若在此之前未能达成协议，则协定将于2036年失效。

素材来源：iYuba

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