California's ultra rich have been louder than usual lately. (Some have their own podcasts, so that is really saying something.) A statewide ballot initiative that would create a billionaire tax has rattled them. Peter Thiel, Larry Page and Sergey Brin—three of the Golden State's roughly 200 billionaires—have begun to move business to low-tax havens such as Florida and Nevada. Mr Brin and others have lavished millions on a new political outfit that may oppose the measure or fund competing initiatives come November. "It's just totally punitive and vicious," says David Sacks, a venture capitalist and (former) San Franciscan.

加州超级富豪们近来格外高调。 （有些人有自己的播客节目， 这足以说明问题。）一项将在全州范围内进行投票表决的亿万富翁税提案让他们坐立不安。 彼得·蒂尔、拉里·佩奇和谢尔盖·布林——这三位加州约200名亿万富翁中的代表人物——已开始将业务转移到佛罗里达和内华达等低税天堂。 布林等人还斥资数百万美元，资助了一个新的政治组织，该组织可能会在11月反对这项提案或资助与之竞争的倡议。 “这完全是惩罚性的、恶意的。”风险投资家、（前）旧金山居民大卫·萨克斯说道。

The Billionaire Tax Act would create a one-time 5% wealth tax for California residents whose net worth exceeds $1.1bn. The measure was dreamt up by the SEIU, a health-care union, which argues that the takings would help replace federal funding cuts to the state's Medicaid programme. It would allocate 90% of revenues to health care and the remaining 10% to education and food assistance. The initiative has yet to make the ballot (its supporters have until June 24th to collect the nearly 900,000 signatures needed). Yet in a matter of weeks the mere possibility of a billionaire tax has roiled business and politics in America's biggest state.

《亿万富翁税法案》将对净资产超过11亿美元的加州居民征收一次性5%的财富税。 这项提案由医疗保健行业工会——服务业雇员国际工会（SEIU）提出， 该工会认为，征收此税将有助于弥补联邦政府对加州医疗补助计划（Medicaid）的资金削减。 该法案将把90%的收入用于医疗保健，其余10%用于教育和食品援助。 该倡议尚未进入投票环节（支持者需在6月24日前收集近90万份签名）。 然而，仅仅在几周内，征收亿万富翁税的可能性就搅动了美国最大州的商业和政治局势。

There is a real question about how states that expanded Medicaid, America's health-insurance scheme for the not-so-well-off, will cope with cuts included in President Donald Trump's Big Beautiful Bill. But California's Legislative Analyst's Office suggests that attempting to solve the problem with a one-time wealth tax could imperil the state's general fund in the long term. As recently as 2022 nearly 40% of personal income taxes in California were paid by the top 1%. If a wealth tax drives those golden geese away, that means less money for public services.

对于那些扩大了医疗补助计划（美国针对低收入群体的医疗保险计划）的州， 将如何应对唐纳德·特朗普总统提出的“宏伟美丽法案”中包含的削减措施，这确实是个问题。 但加州立法分析办公室指出，试图用一次性财富税来解决这个问题，可能会危及该州的普通基金长期稳定。 就在2022年，加州近40%的个人所得税都是由前1%的高收入者缴纳的。 如果财富税把这些“金鹅”赶走，那就意味着公共服务资金减少。

Then there are worries about the tax's design. It would tax illiquid wealth and unrealised gains, such as shares in a startup. That appals techies. "If your paper gains are going to be considered wealth that you have to suddenly produce—and in a cash way give to the government—that's going to kill this economy," says Matt Mahan, the mayor of San Jose, Silicon Valley's biggest city. Mr Mahan, a former startup founder, is now running for governor, buoyed by support from local tech titans. Arthur Mensch, a co-founder of Mistral, a French AI firm, made a similar argument when lefties in France (unsuccessfully) advocated a wealth tax last year.

此外，人们对该税种的设计也表示担忧。 它将对应税非流动性财富和未实现收益征税，比如初创公司的股份。 这让科技界人士感到震惊。 “如果你的账面收益被视为必须以现金形式突然缴纳给政府的财富，那将扼杀经济，” 硅谷最大城市圣何塞市市长马特·马汉说道。 马汉曾是一名初创公司创始人，如今在当地科技巨头的支持下竞选州长。 法国人工智能公司Mistral的联合创始人亚瑟·门施去年在法国左翼人士 （未能成功）倡导征收财富税时也提出了类似观点。

The fight over the billionaire tax fuels an existing debate. The state, and the Bay Area in particular, has long assumed that firms will pay more taxes, larger salaries and higher energy costs because few other places in the world can offer the same concentration of talent. Call it the "California surcharge". But at what point does the price become too dear?

关于亿万富翁税的争论加剧了现有的辩论。 该州，尤其是湾区，长期以来一直认为，由于世界上很少有其他地方能提供如此集中的人才， 企业会愿意支付更高的税、更高的工资和更高的能源成本。 姑且称之为“加州附加费”。 但价格究竟何时会高到难以承受？

Enrico Moretti, an economist at the University of California, Berkeley, found that billionaires (especially old ones) will move to avoid estate taxes when the state enacting them already imposes a high income-tax burden. "The state is not the right jurisdiction to tax high-net-worth individuals," says Mr Moretti. You don't have to leave America to avoid the levy, he adds. "All you have to do is go to Texas or Florida." More moguls may move. "I'm hearing consistently from everyone I talk to that they are all instructing their lawyers and accountants to make plans for an exit strategy," warns Mr Mahan.

加州大学伯克利分校的经济学家恩里科·莫雷蒂发现， 亿万富翁（尤其是年长的亿万富翁）会在所在州已经征收高额所得税的情况下，为避免遗产税而选择迁移。 莫雷蒂表示：“州并不是对高净值人士征税的合适管辖区。” 他补充说，你不必离开美国就能避税， “你只需要去得克萨斯州或佛罗里达州就行了。”可能会有更多大亨选择迁移。 “我每次与人交谈时都听到，他们都在指示律师和会计师制定撤离计划，” 马汉警告道。

The proposal comes as Democrats (largely in very blue places) are pondering whether wealth taxes might serve their "affordability" agenda. Some, such as Bernie Sanders, an 84-year-old senator for Vermont, think they can make life more affordable for the many by milking millionaires and making things like college tuition free. "Tax the 1%" can be good politics: Zohran Mamdani, New York's new mayor, campaigned on raising income taxes on the rich. Washington and Rhode Island are mulling whether to tax millionaires.

该提案提出之际，民主党人（主要在极左倾地区）正在考虑财富税是否有助于实现他们的“可负担性”议程。 一些人，比如佛蒙特州84岁的参议员伯尼·桑德斯， 认为可以通过向百万富翁征税，让更多人过上更负担得起的生活，比如让大学学费全免。 “向1%的人征税”在政治上颇具吸引力：纽约新市长佐兰·马姆达尼在竞选时就提出要提高对富人的所得税。 华盛顿州和罗德岛州也在考虑是否对百万富翁征税。

"Abundance" Democrats, by contrast, favour supply-side policies such as making it easier to build homes and generate power, thus reducing prices. The issue will no doubt feature in future Democratic presidential debates. Gavin Newsom, California's governor and the presumptive Democratic front-runner, does not support squeezing billionaires. He would rather they stay in California than move to a red state and pay for public services there. But he is careful not to seem too chummy with plutocrats. "I've met with all of them," he said at a Bloomberg News event. "Some I respect, some I don't."

相比之下，“富足型”民主党人则倾向于供给侧政策，比如放宽建房和发电限制，从而降低价格。 这个问题无疑将在未来的民主党总统辩论中占据一席之地。 加州州长、民主党推定总统候选人前茅者加文·纽森不支持向亿万富翁施压。 他更希望他们留在加州，而不是搬到共和党州并在那里为公共服务提供资金。 但他也谨慎地避免显得与富豪们过于亲近。 “我和他们都见过面，”他在彭博新闻社举办的一场活动上说， “有些我尊重，有些我不尊重。”

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