演讲题目：Finding Critical Metals

演讲简介：

你的智能手机、电脑以及电动汽车都依赖于一种资源——深埋于地下的关键矿物。但有一个问题：采矿业在发现新矿藏方面的情况却变得极为糟糕，尤其是在我们最需要这些矿藏的时候。矿业创新者米菲基•马凯伊表示，她推出了新的基于人工智能的技术，能够解决这一问题，其预测矿藏位置的速度比传统方法快10000倍，并且能够推动这个对可持续未来至关重要的行业实现变革。



中英文字幕

I was born and raised in Zambia, a country known for its rich copper mining history.

我在赞比亚出生和长大，这个国家以其丰富的铜矿开采历史而闻名。

Alignment of the stars meant that by birth and by science, I became a miner.

由于命运的安排以及自身的努力，我凭借出身背景和专业知识最终成为了矿工。

Everything we build and use was either grown or mined.

我们所建造和使用的所有物品，要么是通过种植获得的，要么是通过开采获取的。

From the walls to the windows, the tables and the chairs, your phones, your computers, the stage, my copper earrings and maybe your jewelry.

从墙壁到窗户，桌子和椅子，你的手机，你的电脑，舞台，我的铜耳环，也许还有你的珠宝。

So today when we talk about building a circular economy, we mean we need to electrify everything.

所以今天当我们谈到构建循环经济时，意思就是我们需要让一切实现电气化。

Our economies will have cars and trucks, robots, drones and aircraft powered by batteries.

我们的经济将拥有由电池驱动的汽车和卡车、机器人、无人机和飞机。

Our children will need computers in all schools with equal access, and we'll have data centers full of advanced chips to bring us AI,

我们的孩子将需要所有学校的计算机平等使用，我们将拥有充满先进芯片的数据中心，为我们带来人工智能，

all sourced by abundant sources of renewable energy.

所有这些都来自丰富的可再生能源。

The raw materials we'll need will be recyclable so we can become clean and circular.

我们所需的原材料将是可回收利用的，这样我们就能实现清洁和循环利用的目标。

So that means a lot more lithium, copper, cobalt, nickel and others.

这意味着更多的锂、铜、钴、镍和其他物质。

So we need to build more than 400 new mines by 2040 for us to become circular.

到2040年，我们需要建造400多个新矿山，才能实现循环经济。

But before you can build a mine, you have to find the raw materials.

但在建矿井之前，你必须找到原材料。

The thing is, today's mining industry leaders are doing too little to advance our qualities of life.

问题是，当今的采矿业领导者在提高我们的生活质量方面做得太少。

In other industries that rely on discovery for growth, like pharmaceuticals and technology, for every dollar they return to shareholders,

在其他依赖发现增长的行业，例如制药和技术，他们回报给股东的每一美元，

they spend about a dollar in R and D.

他们在研发上花费了大约一美元。

In mining, however, for every dollar returned to shareholders, less than a penny is spent in exploration.

然而，在采矿业中，每返还给股东一美元，用于勘探的资金还不到一分钱。

With such underinvestment, it shouldn't surprise you that the technology used in exploration and mining has barely advanced.

在投资如此不足的情况下，勘探和采矿中使用的技术几乎没有进步也就不足为奇了。

In fact, we've gotten ten times worse in the last 30 years at making ore body discoveries.

事实上，在过去30年里，我们在发现矿脉方面的情况已经恶化了十倍。

But there's good news.

但有个好消息。

The vast majority of ore deposits are still out there waiting to be found.

绝大多数矿床仍在等待被发现。

They're just harder to find.

只是它们更难找到。

Of all the past mines we know of, they were easy because they were poking out of the surface and they were near the surface.

在我们所知道的所有过去的地雷中，它们很容易开采，因为它们从表面伸出，而且靠近表面。

So we need to look deeper.

所以我们需要深入研究。

Controversially, we've been taught that these materials will run out.

有争议的是，我们被告知这些材料将会耗尽。

We don't lack ore body deposits.

我们并不缺乏矿床。

We lack information of where they lie.

我们缺乏发现它们在哪里的信息。

So if you had a crystal ball, you'd just look into it and start digging out the rocks that are the best and generate the least waste.

如果你们有一面水晶球的话，只需将目光投向其中，就能找出那些最优质的矿石，并且能最大程度地减少浪费。

But we don't have a crystal ball.

但我们没有水晶球。

So the thing that we should do is make predictions of where these materials lie.

所以我们应该做的就是预测这些材料的位置。

My colleagues and I at Kobold are doing what the industry has neglected to do.

我和Kobold的同事正在做被这一行业忽视的事情。

We aim to predict everything, quantify what we don't know and collect information efficiently.

我们的目标是预测一切，量化我们不知道的内容并有效收集信息。

So we're all going to try that right now.

所以我们现在都要尝试一下。

I want you to predict 1,000 meters below your feet what the concentration of copper is right where you're sitting.

我希望你能预测一下，在你脚下的地下 1000 米深处，你所坐之处的铜元素浓度是多少。

I want you to predict how hard it is, how fractured it is, what's its density?

我想让你预测它有多硬，有多断裂，密度是多少？

We aim to predict all these things and more.

我们的目标是预测所有这些事情以及更多事情。

We're developing machine learning technologies that help us predict all of this and rigorously quantify our uncertainties in these predictions.

我们正在开发机器学习技术，帮助我们预测所有这一切，并严格量化这些预测中的不确定性。

So what does this look like in practice?

那么在实践中这是什么样子呢？

When we're exploring for mines, we often fly aircraft thousands of kilometers across the Earth to try collect information,

当我们勘探矿山时，我们经常驾驶飞机飞越地球数千公里试图收集信息，

such as the Earth's magnetism, its gravitational field, that tells us something about the rocks beneath.

例如地球的磁力、重力场，它可以告诉我们有关下面岩石的一些信息。

But there's a problem.

但有个问题：

For everything that we're looking at, there are going to be an infinite number of possibilities.

对于我们正在研究的一切，都有无限种可能性。

And that's because we're building three-dimensional models to fit two-dimensional data.

这是因为我们正在构建三维模型来适应二维数据。

So if a body was smaller and closer to the surface or larger and further away, the measurement would be the same.

如果物体体积较小且靠近表面，或者体积较大且远离表面，测量结果都会是相同的。

So this body will also fit the data.

这个机构也能够符合这些数据的要求。

And will this one, and this one, and many more.

还有更多。

The incumbent industry deals with this problem by ignoring it.

现有行业通过忽视这个问题来处理这个问题。

They pick one possible answer and act like the other ones don't exist.

他们选择一个可能的答案，并表现得就像其他答案不存在一样。

And as a result, we design suboptimal mines, make suboptimal decisions, often mining unnecessary material.

结果，我们设计次优矿山，做出次优决策，经常开采不必要的材料。

We've invented a different way.

我们发明了一种不同的方法。

We collect all the possibilities consistent with the data measured,

我们收集与测量的数据一致的所有可能性，

and we do this by simulating the physical response of each of the arrangement of rocks.

我们通过模拟每种岩石排列的物理反应来做到这一点。

We do this 10,000 times faster by training an AI to learn the relevant physics of the rock beneath,

通过训练人工智能来学习岩石内部的相关物理特性，我们的操作速度提高了 10000 倍。

in the time it takes the conventional method to test one.

在传统方法测试一个所需的时间内。

That means we collect better data, we make better predictions of where to look next.

这意味着我们收集更好的数据，我们对下一步的研究做出更好的预测。

So if you had a rock body and a rock body that's denser than material around it, you might drill through the middle of it.

如果有一个岩石体，而这个岩石体的密度大于其周围物质的密度，那么你或许就能从其中间钻穿过去。

But if you have all the hundreds of thousands of possible solutions,

但如果您拥有数十万种可能的解决方案，

the best thing you can do is to collect data where you're the most uncertain and rigorously eliminate as many possibilities as possible.

您能做的最好的事情就是收集您最不确定的数据，并严格消除尽可能多的可能性。

This enables us to maximize the information we get for every dollar we spend, and we do this repeatedly so we can quantify our uncertainties.

这使我们能够最大限度地利用花费的每一美元获得的信息，并且我们反复这样做，以便量化我们的不确定性。

Even after we've made an ore body discovery, we still have to contend with this uncertainty.

即使我们发现了矿床，我们仍然必须应对这种不确定性。

We have to define the size and shape of this ore body.

我们必须定义这个矿床的大小和形状。

Let me illustrate how difficult this is.

让我来说一下这有多难。

So now, 1,000 meters below your feet, you drilled, you sampled the rock and you determined that it has five percent copper.

现在，在你脚下1000米以下，你钻孔，对岩石进行了采样，确定其中含有5%的铜。

So now you know, you've got your data point and your observation.

现在你明白了，你已经有了数据点和观察结果。

Now, I ask you to make a prediction of the concentration of copper of the person sitting next to you.

现在，我要求您预测坐在您旁边的人的铜浓度。

What would your prediction be and how confident would you be in your prediction?

您的预测是什么？您对预测的信心有多大？

What about across the room?

房间另一头呢？

Think of any person across this room and try to predict 1,000 meters below them.

想想这个房间对面的任何人，并尝试预测他们下方1000米的位置。

What about in the next building or the next city?

那么在下一栋建筑或下一座城市呢？

This is the vast challenge that we face.

这是我们面临的巨大挑战。

We've only sampled a tiny fraction of rock, collected several football fields apart from each other,

我们只采集了一小部分岩石，收集了几个彼此分开的足球场，

for which we're trying to make predictions of all the rock properties in between.

为此，我们试图预测两者之间的所有岩石性质。

This technology has helped us move fast in Zambia, where I come from,

这项技术帮助我们在我的家乡赞比亚快速前进，

to design and develop a mine based on our predictions for which we've only sampled a tiny fraction of rock.

根据我们的预测设计和开发一个矿井，我们只对一小部分岩石进行了采样。

Once again, there are many possibilities, all consistent with the data.

再说一次，有很多可能性，都与数据一致。

Some with a lot more metal, some with less.

有些金属较多，有些金属较少。

And the difference is a measure of uncertainties.

差异是不确定性的衡量标准。

This enables us to know where we should collect information next, where we should drill the next hole,

这使我们能够知道接下来应该在哪里收集信息，应该在哪里钻下一个洞，

and when we can stop drilling and actually start building a mine.

以及我们何时可以停止钻探并真正开始建造矿井。

To build the mine of the future, we continue to contend with this uncertainty.

为了建设未来的矿山，我们将继续应对这种不确定性。

The industry designs an entire mine based on a single model.

该行业基于单一模型设计整个矿井。

We're developing Kobold mine,

我们正在开发Kobold矿，

a mine-design optimization tool that looks at the many possible mine designs against the many possible ore body geometries,

一个矿山设计优化工具，根据许多可能的矿石几何形状来研究许多可能的矿山设计，

that we talked about earlier.

这是我们之前讨论过的。

This enables the best decisions about how much ore we're going to mine,

这使得我们能够就我们将开采多少矿石、

how much waste we're going to produce, how much water we'll use, the cash flows, and so on.

我们将产生多少废物、我们将使用多少水，现金流等等。

This enables the best mine planning decisions about where to put permanent infrastructure, like a shaft.

这使得能够就在哪里放置永久基础设施（例如竖井）做出最佳矿山规划决策。

Where the traffic and the tunnels will be placed so we can make efficient decisions,

关于交通设施和隧道的布局情况，以便我们能够做出合理的决策。

and also how we can maximize the ore and the metal we get and minimize the waste.

以及我们如何最大限度地利用我们获得的矿石和金属并最大限度地减少废物。

This technology will move into mine operations to help guide day-to-day decisions for efficiencies.

这项技术将应用到矿山运营中，帮助指导日常决策以提高效率。

Better predictions don't just mean profitability.

更好的预测不仅仅意味着盈利能力。

It means a safer mine, knowing where the rocks are weaker.

这意味着一个更安全的矿井，知道哪里的岩石较弱。

It means an environmentally sustainable mine so we can lessen our impact on the environment.

这意味着一个环境可持续的矿山，以便我们可以减少对环境的影响。

And it also means a resilient mine with cash flows to support local communities and businesses through different commodity pricing cycles.

这也意味着一个有弹性的矿山，拥有现金流，可以在不同的商品定价周期中支持当地社区和企业。

Our Mingomba project in Zambia will be the mine of the future.

我们在赞比亚的“明戈巴”项目将成为未来的矿业典范。

It's being designed and developed by amazing talent from around the world, including Zambians and Africans like myself.

它是由来自世界各地的杰出人才设计和开发的，包括赞比亚人和像我这样的非洲人。

We face the reality that our need for these materials will continue to grow,

我们面临的现实是，我们对这些材料的需求将继续增长，

because our lifestyles are going to advance and they're going to demand for it.

因为我们的生活方式将会进步，他们也会提出要求。

So the mining industry must ensure they transform.

因此，采矿业必须确保它们转型。

So we can become responsible miners and build better mines with better technology.

这样我们就可以成为负责任的矿工，用更好的技术建造更好的矿山。

Asante and thank you.

谢谢。

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