US shoppers are cutting back on spending and sentiment is sliding as President Donald Trump's tariffs and market volatility threaten to undermine one of the key drivers of the world's largest economy.

随着特朗普政府的关税政策与市场波动威胁动摇美国这一全球最大经济体的核心引擎，美国消费者正缩减开支，消费信心持续走低。

Many retailers reported solid sales at the end of last year, but warned of slower growth in 2025, and industry data shows that their forecasts are already playing out.

去年年底，许多零售商报告称销售额稳健，但警告称2025年的增长将放缓， 行业数据也显示，他们的预测已经开始应验。

Footfall to US stores fell by 4.3 per cent year on year in early March, according to RetailNext, a consultancy — extending declines that began at the start of the year. Placer.ai, which aggregates signals from consumers' mobile devices, has recorded fewer visits to big-box stores including Walmart, Target and Best Buy in recent weeks.

咨询机构RetailNext的数据显示，3月初，美国商店的客流量同比下降了4.3%， 延续了年初以来的下降趋势。Placer.ai汇总了消费者移动设备的信号，其数据显示，近几周来，包括沃尔玛、 塔吉特和百思买在内的大型商场的客流量有所减少。



On Friday the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index recorded its third consecutive monthly drop and the lowest reading since November 2022. Inflation expectations were rising, the survey also showed.

周五，密歇根大学消费者信心指数连续第三个月下降，并创下2022年11月以来的最低水平。调查还显示，通胀预期正在上升。

Trump has declined to rule out a recession, while the stock market's recent tumble has dented the investment portfolios of wealthier Americans who propel US consumption.

特朗普拒绝排除经济衰退的可能性，而近期股市暴跌，则重创了支撑美国消费增长的高净值人群的投资组合。

"The consumer is being barraged with so many different elements," said Marshal Cohen, chief retail analyst at Circana, which compiles retail purchase data. "It's easier for the consumer to just step back and say: 'I'm going to ride this out and wait and see what happens'."

“消费者正受到诸多不同因素的影响，”Circana首席零售分析师马歇尔·科恩表示，该公司汇编了零售购买数据。“消费者更容易选择暂时退后，心想：‘我还是先静观其变，看看结果如何再说。’”

The US Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates on hold at its meeting this week, and Fed chair Jay Powell recently downplayed concerns about growth, saying that the US central bank did "not need to be in a hurry" to cut rates.

预计美国联邦储备委员会将在本周的会议上维持利率不变，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔最近淡化了对经济增长的担忧，称美联储“不必急于”降息。

But investors are increasingly concerned that Trump's erratic policymaking, marked by a series of sudden U-turns, is disrupting businesses and slowing growth. Wall Street's benchmark S&P 500 stock index fell into correction territory this week, before inching back.

但投资者越来越担心，特朗普反复无常的政策制定（以一系列突然的政策转向为标志）正在扰乱企业并减缓增长。华尔街基准股指标准普尔500指数本周进入回调区间，随后略有回升。

Consumer spending was a key driver of the US's economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic, outpacing Europe and other big economies.

消费者支出是美国经济从新冠疫情中复苏的关键驱动力，其增速超过了欧洲和其他主要经济体。

But household budgets were stretched in the subsequent period of high inflation. In response, consumers have pared spending, cutting sales volumes for consumer packaged goods companies. Lower-income consumers have felt the most strain.

但在随后的高通胀时期，家庭预算受到了挤压。作为回应，消费者削减了开支，导致包装消费品公司的销售额下降。低收入消费者感受到的压力最大。

Sales of discretionary general merchandise fell by 3 per cent in the week ending March 8 compared with last year, continuing a string of annual declines in February, data from Circana showed.

Circana的数据显示，截至3月8日的一周内，非必需一般商品的销售额同比下降了3%，延续了2月份的一连串年度降幅。



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Traffic to US fast-food restaurants was down 2.8 per cent in February, according to Revenue Management Solutions, with visits at breakfast time dropping by double digits. "It's the easiest meal to make at home or skip entirely," the consultancy said.

根据Revenue Management Solutions的数据，2月份美国快餐店的客流量下降了2.8%， 早餐时段的客流量更是下降了两位数。“这是最容易在家解决或完全不吃的一餐，”该咨询公司表示。

Four big US airlines this week warned of a slowdown in demand, in part due to retrenchment by leisure travellers.

本周，美国四大航空公司警告称需求放缓，部分原因是休闲旅客的减少。

This month Target reported a decline in February sales and warned of profit pressures this quarter in part due to "tariff uncertainty".

本月，塔吉特报告称2月份销售额下降，并警告称本季度利润将面临压力，部分原因是“关税不确定性”。

Some consumers are also boycotting the Minneapolis-based retailer after it retreated from corporate diversity commitments. Target executives declined to confirm whether boycotts were having an effect.

一些消费者还抵制了这家总部位于明尼阿波利斯的零售商，因为该公司放弃了企业多元化承诺。塔吉特高管拒绝确认抵制活动是否产生了影响。

Analysts said that economic anxiety was having a bigger impact than boycotts on retail sales, for which official government data is due to be released on Monday.

分析师表示，与抵制活动相比，经济焦虑对零售销售的影响更大，官方政府数据将于周一公布。



Lauren Hobart, chief executive of Dick's Sporting Goods, told analysts this week it was "absolutely not the case" that consumers were weaker. However, her chain forecasts same-store sales growth of 1 to 3 per cent this year, slower than its 5.2 per cent rise in 2024.

迪克体育用品公司首席执行官劳伦·霍巴特本周告诉分析师，消费者购买力减弱“绝对不是事实”。然而，她的连锁店预计今年同店销售额将增长1%至3%，低于2024年的5.2%。

"Our guidance merely reflects the fact that there's so much uncertainty in the world today in the geopolitical environment, the macroeconomic environment. We are just being appropriately cautious," Hobart said.

“我们的指引仅仅反映了当今地缘政治环境和宏观经济环境中存在诸多不确定性这一事实。我们只是保持适当的谨慎，”霍巴特表示。

While inflation has weighed on US consumers for months, their anxiety has not always translated into lower spending. The nearly $1 trillion in sales during last year's holiday shopping season surpassed expectations.

尽管通胀数月来一直给美国消费者带来压力，但他们的焦虑并不总是转化为更低的支出。去年假日购物季近1万亿美元的销售额超出了预期。

"Consumers are saying they do intend to pull back," Tom Kilroy, a senior partner at McKinsey, told an industry conference in New York this week. "But what we've also seen over the last year is that they haven't always followed up that intention with action."

“消费者表示他们确实打算削减开支，”麦肯锡高级合伙人汤姆·基尔罗伊本周在纽约的一个行业会议上表示。“但我们在过去一年中也看到，他们并不总是将这种意图付诸行动。”

                                     素材来源：金融时报