美国联邦储备委员会18日宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调50个基点，降至4.75%至5.00%之间的水平。这是美联储自2020年3月以来的首次降息，也标志着由货币政策紧缩周期向宽松周期的转向。

美联储当天结束为期两天的货币政策会议。美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会18日在会议结束后发表声明说，该委员会对通货膨胀率可持续地朝着2%目标前进有了“更大信心”，并认为实现充分就业和物价稳定两大目标的风险大致处于平衡状态。

The US Federal Reserve on Wednesday slashed interest rates by 50 basis points amid cooling inflation and a weakening labor market, marking the first rate cut in over four years. This signals the start of an easing cycle.

"The Committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent, and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance," the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the central bank's policy-setting body, said in a statement.

图源：新华社

在会后举行的新闻发布会上，美联储主席鲍威尔称50个基点的降息是一个“强有力的行动”，同时表示联邦公开市场委员会并不认为降息行动慢了，而是认为这是及时的举措。

When asked about this "larger-than-typical rate cut", Powell acknowledged that it's "a strong move" while noting that "we don't think we're behind. We think this is timely, but I think you can take this as a sign of our commitment not to get behind."

鲍威尔指出，个人消费支出价格指数已从7%左右的高点降至8月份的2.2%，这表明通胀已“显著缓解”。美联储当天发布的最新一期经济前景预期显示，美联储官员对今年年底个人消费支出价格指数的中位数预测值降至2.3%，低于6月的2.6%。

The Fed chair pointed out that inflation "has eased substantially" from a peak of 7 percent to an estimated 2.2 percent as of August, referring to the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.

According to the Fed's latest quarterly summary of economic projections released Wednesday, Fed officials' median projection of PCE inflation is 2.3 percent at the end of this year, down from 2.6 percent in June projection.

通胀下降的同时，美国就业市场出现一些疲软迹象。鲍威尔表示，过去3个月的平均每月就业增长为11.6万，增速明显低于今年早些时候的水平。同时，失业率升至4.2%。根据最新经济前景预期，美联储官员对今年底失业率的中位数预测值为4.4%，高于6月的4.0%，这意味着劳动力市场状况不如此前预期。

Powell noted that in the labor market, conditions have continued to cool. Payroll job gains averaged 116,000 per month over the past three months, "a notable step down from the pace seen earlier in the year" he said, while adding that the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low at 4.2 percent.

The median unemployment rate projection, meanwhile, showed that unemployment rate would rise to 4.4 percent at the end of this year, up from 4.0 percent in June projection.

图源：新华社

此外，经济前景预期还显示，联邦公开市场委员会的19名成员预期美联储在今年底前还将进一步降息，其中9人预计将降息50个基点，7人预计将降息25个基点。

"All 19 of the (FOMC) participants wrote down multiple cuts this year. All 19. That's a big change from June," Powell told reporters, referring to the closely-watched dot plot, where each FOMC participant sees the Fed funds rate heading.

The newly released dot plot shows that nine out of the 19 members expect the equivalent of 50 more basis points of cuts by end of this year, while seven members expect a 25 basis point cut.

从2022年3月开始，美联储连续11次加息，以应对40年一遇的通货膨胀，由于通货膨胀下降速度不如预期，美联储自去年7月底以来一直将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在5.25%至5.5%之间，这是23年来的最高水平。

Starting from March 2022, the Fed had raised rates consecutively for 11 times to combat inflation not seen in forty years, pushing the target range for the federal funds rate up to between 5.25 percent and 5.5 percent, the highest level in over two decades.

近几个月，随着美国通胀形势进一步缓解、就业市场出现疲软迹象，美联储面临政策转向的压力。