You believe that the Sun is much larger than the Earth,

你相信太阳比地球大得多，

that the Earth is a roughly spherical planet that rotates on its axis every 24 hours and it revolves around the Sun once every 365 days.

地球是一个接近于球体的星球，地球每24小时自转一周，每365天绕着太阳转一周。

You believe that you were born on a particular date,

你相信你是在某个特定的时间出生的，

that you were born to two human parents and that each of your human parents was born on an earlier date.

你有父亲和母亲，并且你还相信，你的父母都比你更早出生。

You believe that other human beings have thoughts and feelings like you do and that you are not surrounded by humanoid robots.

你相信其他的人类也像你一样有思想和感觉，你不是被类似于人类的机器人所环绕。

You believe all of these things and many more,  not on the basis of direct observation,

你相信所有这些以及更多的事情，虽然你没有亲眼所见，

which can't, by itself, tell you very much about the relative size and motion of the Sun and the Earth, or about your own family history,

因为，观察事物的本身并不能告诉你很多关于太阳和地球的相对大小和运动的信息，或者你自己的家族历史，

or about what goes on in the minds of other humans.

或是别人的大脑里在想什么。

Instead, these beliefs are mostly based on what you've been told.

相反，大部分的这些知识都是别人告诉你的。

Without spoken and written testimonies, human beings could not pass on knowledge from one person to another,

没有笔头或者口头证据，人类不能在人和人之间传递知识，

let alone from one generation to another.

更不必说一代和一代之间了。

We would know much, much less about the world around us.

我们会知道得更少身边的世界。

So learning about a topic by asking an expert on that topic, or appealing to authority, helps us gain knowledge, but, it doesn't always.

所以了解一个专题要请教某个领域的专家或者诉讼权威，帮助我们获得知识，但是，它不总是适用。

Even the most highly respected authorities can turn out to be wrong.

甚至最受尊敬的权威也能出现错失。

Occasionally this happens because a highly respected authority is dishonest and claims to know something that she or he really doesn't know.

通常这发生是因为一个高度受尊敬的权威不诚实，声称懂得某件事物，但他（她）其实并不真的了解。

Sometimes it happens just because they make a mistake.

有时它发生只是因为他们犯了一个错误。

They think they know when they don't know.

当他们并不懂时，他们以为自己懂。

For example, a number of respected economists did not expect the financial collapse of 2008.

例如，一些受人尊敬的经济学家并没有预料到2008年的金融危机。

They turned out to be wrong.

事实证明他们错了。

Maybe they were wrong because they were overlooking some important evidence.

也许他们错了，因为他们忽视了一些重要的证据。

Maybe they were wrong because they were misinterpreting some of the evidence they had noticed.

也许他们错了，因为他们误解了他们注意到的一些证据。

Or maybe they were wrong simply because they were reasoning carelessly from the total body of their evidence.

或者他们错了，只是因为他们根据全部证据进行了粗心的推理。

But whatever the reason, they turned out to be wrong and many people who trusted their authority ended up losing lots of money,

但无论出于何种原因，事实证明他们错了，许多相信他们权威的人最终损失了很多钱，

losing lots of other people's money, on account of that misplaced trust.

由于这种错误的信任，失去了很多其他人的钱。

So while appealing to authority can sometimes provide us with valuable knowledge, it also can sometimes be the cause of monumental errors.

因此，虽然诉诸权威有时可以为我们提供有价值的知识，但有时也可能成为巨大错误的原因。

It's important to all of us to be able to distinguish those occasions on which we can safely and reasonably trust authority from those occasions on which we can't.

对于我们所有人来说，能够区分那些我们可以安全合理地信任权威的情况和那些我们不能信任权威的情况非常重要。

But how do we do that?

但怎么做到呢？

In order to do that, nothing is more useful than an authority's track record on a particular topic.

为了做到这一点，没有任何事物比一个权威在某个特殊领域的历史数据更有用。

If someone turns out to perform well in a given situation much of the time,

如果一个人在特定情况下大部分时间表现良好，

then it's likely that he or she will continue to perform well in that same situation, at least in the near term.

那么他或她很可能会在同样的情况下继续表现良好，至少在短期内是这样。

And this generalization holds true of the testimony of authorities as much as of anything else.

这种概括对当局的证词和其他任何事情都适用。

If someone can consistently pick winners in both politics and baseball,

假如某人能够持续选中政治和棒球的胜者，

then we should probably trust him or her to keep on picking winners in both politics or baseball,

我们会更可能相信他（她）会继续选中政治或棒球赢家，

though maybe not in other things where his or her track record may be less stellar.

虽然可能其他事情并不这样，因为他或她的历史数据可能不出众。

If other forecasters have a poorer track record on those same two topics, then we shouldn't trust them as much.

如果其他预测者在这两个主题上的记录较差，那么我们就不应该那么信任他们。

So whenever you're considering whether to trust the testimony of some authority, the first question to ask yourself is,

所以不论你考虑是否相信某些权威声明，你第一个要问自己的问题是，

"What's their track record on this topic?" And notice that you can apply the very same lesson to yourself.

“他们在那个方面的历史数据如何？”然后意识到你可以对自己使用同样方法。

Your instincts tell you that you've just met Mr. Right,

你的直觉告诉你，你刚碰到了真命天子。

but what sort of track record do your instincts have on topics like this one?

但是你的直觉在哪方面的历史数据与这个主题相似？

Have your instincts proven themselves to be worthy of your trust?

你的直觉是否曾证明值得你信任？

Just as we judge other people's testimony by their track record, so, too, we can judge our own instincts by their track record.

就像我们鉴定其他人的声明，通过他们的历史数据。所以，我们也能鉴定自己的直觉。

And this brings us one step closer to an objective view of ourselves and our relation to the world around us.

这使我们更接近客观地看待自己以及我们与周围世界的关系。