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乐观主义者对人工智能时代的看法

发布者: 五毒 | 发布时间: 2024-7-9 18:07| 查看数: 63| 评论数: 0|

Just the other day, I was having this casual coffee chat with a friend and he asked me, "Am I going to be replaced by AI?

就在前几天,我和一位朋友闲聊咖啡,他问我:“我会被人工智能取代吗?

I don't want to go back to school to learn new skills, I'm 40.

我不想回到学校学习新技能,我已经40岁了。

And even if I do, won't employers prefer to hire someone half my age?" I mean,

即使我这样做,雇主难道不更愿意雇用年龄只有我一半的人吗?“我的意思是,

I get his concern and I have many other friends and clients who've been asking me similar questions.

我理解他的担忧,而且我还有很多其他朋友和客户也一直在问我类似的问题。

To be very honest, sometimes I worry about it too.

说实话,有时我也担心这一点。

You see, I'm a consultant and consultants like me are famous, or some of you may even say infamous, for creating these extensive, deeply researched, well-polished slide decks.

你看,我是一名顾问,像我这样的顾问很有名,或者你们中的一些人可能会说臭名昭著,因为我制作了这些广泛的、深入研究的、精心制作的幻灯片。

But you know what?

但你知道吗?

We take great pride in this ability.

我们对这种能力感到非常自豪。

But what took us days and sometimes weeks in the past can now increasingly be done in a matter of hours, thanks to AI.

但由于人工智能,过去我们需要几天甚至几周的时间,现在越来越多地可以在几个小时内完成。

And well, this sort of thing is happening all over the economic landscape.

嗯,这种事情正在整个经济格局中发生。

One in every three workers globally will find their jobs significantly impacted due to technology in this decade.

在每十年里,全球三分之一的工人将发现自己的工作因技术而受到严重影响。

And that's not just bank tellers, factory workers and warehouse staff, but executive managers and office workers too.

这不仅仅是银行收银员、工厂工人和仓库工作人员,还有行政经理和办公室工作人员。

You and me and all of us.

你、我和我们所有人。

That's going to be more than one billion people impacted.

这将有超过十亿人受到影响。

And companies can't hire their way through this problem.

公司无法通过雇佣来解决这个问题。

Firstly, there just isn't enough talent in growing areas such as data science, cybersecurity or clean energy.

首先,数据科学、网络安全或清洁能源等不断增长的领域缺乏足够的人才。

And even if companies managed to somehow hire their absolute best talent, in five years, half of their skills will become redundant.

即使公司设法以某种方式雇用了绝对最优秀的人才,五年后,他们一半的技能也将变得多余。

Two and a half years, if you're working in technology.

如果您从事技术工作,则需要两年半。

This is what we call the half life of skills.

这就是我们所说的技能的半衰期。

The only solution is to reskill millions of people every year and get them to use those new skills to transition into new occupations.

唯一的解决方案是每年重新培训数百万人,让他们使用这些新技能过渡到新职业。

But as I say this, I do realize this is going to be a profoundly complex societal challenge and so big, that governments, companies and individuals must together.

但正如我所说的,我确实意识到这将是一个非常复杂的社会挑战,如此之大,政府、公司和个人必须共同努力。

They must work together.

他们必须共同努力。

I am confident that the only way forward is to replace our fear and our skepticism with curiosity and optimism.

我相信,唯一的前进道路是用好奇心和乐观来取代我们的恐惧和怀疑。

And I know this is possible because of my experience working with the Singapore government on one of their largest digital reskilling programs.

我知道这是可能的,因为我与新加坡政府合作开展最大的数字再培训计划之一的经验。

Singapore is a tiny country, barely visible on the world map and devoid of any major natural resources.

新加坡是一个小国,在世界地图上几乎看不到,而且没有任何主要的自然资源。

But they realized early on that the only way to grow the nation is to grow its people.

但他们很早就意识到,国家发展的唯一途径就是人口增长。

And since then, they have embraced reskilling so excitedly that if you visit Singapore,

从那时起,他们非常兴奋地接受了重新训练,以至于如果你访问新加坡,

you're likely going to be bumping into skills ambassadors at shopping malls,

你可能会在购物中心遇到技能大使,

talking excitedly about the impact of adult skill building through gamified interactive kiosks.

兴奋地谈论通过游戏化交互式自助终端成人技能培养的影响。

They share positive stories of reskilling on national news,

他们在国家新闻上分享重新训练的积极故事,

and they even talk about reskilling as part of the national defense agenda against threats and challenges to the economy.

他们甚至谈到将重新训练作为国防议程的一部分,以应对经济威胁和挑战。

There was even a "lifelong learning" float at Singapore's National Day parade this year.

今年新加坡国庆游行上甚至还有“终身学习”花车。

Unusual, isn't it, to see a country take such a positive and proactive approach?

看到一个国家采取如此积极主动的态度,这不是很不寻常吗?

But it was no surprise for me that in 2020, during record unemployment,

但对我来说,在2020年,在创纪录的失业率期间,

the government reached out to my company to ask if we could take a few unemployed workers as interns.

政府联系了我的公司,询问我们是否可以招收一些失业工人作为实习生。

But that conversation quickly spiraled into something much bigger.

但那次谈话很快演变成更大的问题。

And soon we were working jointly to launch an at-scale, six-month program called "Rise"

很快,我们就共同启动了一项名为“崛起”的大规模为期六个月的计划。

to reskill thousands of individuals from traditional declining roles into roles such as data scientists, digital product owner and digital marketeer.

将数千名个人从传统的衰落角色重新培训为数据科学家、数字产品所有者和数字营销人员等角色。

But as applications to our program increased, so did my nervousness.

但随着申请我们项目的人越来越多,我也越来越紧张。

Many of our applicants had been out of formal education for more than 20 years.

我们的许多申请人已经没有接受正规教育20多年了。

We had Simon, a 53-year-old from the construction sector who survived two economic crises, to realize that he now wants to get into a digital career.

西蒙(Simon)现年53岁,来自建筑行业,经历了两次经济危机,他意识到自己现在想从事数字职业。

We had Hafizah, who spent more than seven months looking for her perfect job,

我们有Hafizah,她花了七个多月的时间寻找她完美的工作,

to realize that she needed new skills to pivot away from the traditional media industry that she worked in,

意识到她需要新技能来摆脱她所工作的传统媒体行业,

which was getting impacted by technology.

它受到了技术的影响。

As I spoke to many of our learners, it was clear to me that this was not going to be an easy transition for them.

当我与许多学习者交谈时,我很清楚这对他们来说不会是一个容易的过渡。

So right from the first week, we focused not just on building their skill set,

因此,从第一周开始,我们不仅专注于培养他们的技能,

but building their mindset and building their confidence in their ability to reskill and make a career pivot happen.

但要建立他们的心态,并建立他们对重新训练和实现职业转变的能力的信心。

And this is when we taught them skills such as first principles problem solving,

我们教他们一些技能,比如解决问题的第一性原理,

a strategy we consultants use to solve some of our client's difficult problems.

我们顾问用来解决客户的一些难题的策略。

First principles problem solving is challenging assumptions to identify the real problem to be solved,

第一原则问题解决是挑战假设,以识别需要解决的真正问题,

and then looking at issues from multiple fresh perspectives, even when you may not have deep subject matter expertise to begin with,

然后从多个新鲜的角度看待问题,即使您可能一开始就没有深厚的主题专业知识,

and then distilling the core insight in a concise way.

然后以简洁的方式提炼核心见解。

These first principles problem solving skills would prepare our learners to thrive in these unfamiliar situations they will find themselves in in these new job domains.

这些首要原则解决问题的技能将使我们的学习者做好准备,以便在他们在这些新工作领域发现自己所处的陌生环境中茁壮成长。

And then to teach them the digital or the technology skills, we had to make things very, very real and practical for our mature learners.

然后,为了教他们数字或技术技能,我们必须为成熟的学习者提供非常、非常真实和实用的东西。

So we put their skills in action on real projects.

因此,我们将他们的技能运用到实际项目中。

And this is where we invited executives from companies like Olam, Danone and Singapore Airlines to host hackathons.

这就是我们邀请奥兰、达能和新加坡航空等公司的高管举办黑客马拉松的地方。

I still remember one of the hackathon showcases where our "Rise" learners presented the deep user research they did,

我仍然记得一个黑客游戏展示,我们的“Rise”学习者展示了他们所做的深入用户研究,

and the mock up of the digital app that they were recommending.

以及他们推荐的数字应用程序的模拟。

One of the client professionals got so excited and he told them, "This is like professional consulting work."

一位客户专业人士非常兴奋,他告诉他们:“这就像专业咨询工作。"

I sat there smiling cheek to cheek, because I knew that if these learners had applied for jobs,

我坐在那里,脸贴脸微笑,因为我知道,如果这些学习者申请了工作,

their applications would have been screened out even in the very first stage.

即使在第一阶段,他们的申请也会被筛选出来。

And yet, more than 80 percent of our learners found jobs.

然而,超过80%的学习者找到了工作。

Our friend Simon, he got hired as a digital project manager in In-Shore Tech.

我们的朋友西蒙,他被In-Shore Tech聘为数字项目经理。

And Hafiza, she works as a digital marketing specialist in [a] cyber security company.

哈菲扎(Hafiza)在一家网络安全公司担任数字营销专家。

Every time somebody from our program found a job, we felt like proud parents.

每次我们项目中的人找到工作时,我们都会感到自己是自豪的父母。

Such bliss, I tell you.

我告诉你,真是幸福。

But the government of Singapore had an important role to play in the success of programs like "Rise."

但新加坡政府在“崛起”等计划的成功中发挥着重要作用。

They created a national job database and they incentivized companies to hire such reskilled talent.

他们创建了一个全国就业数据库,并激励公司雇用此类重新熟练的人才。

They're even steering academia to transition from higher education to continuous learning.

他们甚至引导学术界从高等教育过渡到持续学习。

And they have so successfully changed the narrative from fear to curiosity that in 2021 alone,

他们成功地将叙事从恐惧转变为好奇,以至于仅在2021年,

more than 660,000 individuals and more than 24,000 companies participated in their programs.

超过660,000名个人和超过24,000家公司参与了他们的项目。

And if you thought Singapore was unique, we are not the only ones.

如果您认为新加坡是独一无二的,那么我们并不是唯一的。

Italy, Spain, India and many other countries are launching similar skilling initiatives.

意大利、西班牙、印度和许多其他国家也在推出类似的技能计划。

But beyond the role of governments, companies play an important part to shift this mindset from skepticism to optimism for reskilling.

但除了政府的作用之外,公司还发挥着重要作用,将这种心态从怀疑转向对重新技能的乐观。

Take Ikea, the global furniture player.

以全球家具公司宜家为例。

In 2021, Ikea launched this AI bot they call Billy to manage majority of their routine customer inquiries.

2021年,宜家推出了这个他们称为Billy的人工智能机器人,以管理大部分日常客户询问。

But hold on a second.

但等一下。

What would happen to all those call center employees?

所有这些呼叫中心员工会发生什么?

Would they lose their jobs?

他们会失业吗?

No.

不会。

This is where Ikea chose to take a revolutionary approach,

这就是宜家选择采取革命性方法的地方,

and they actually ended up reskilling more than 8,500 individuals who were call center employees into interior design consultants to provide new, personalized design services to their customers.

实际上,他们最终重新培训了8500多名呼叫中心员工,让他们成为室内设计顾问,为客户提供新的个性化设计服务。

And the best part of this story is that Ikea won the hearts and the minds of its employees and customers,

这个故事最精彩的部分是宜家赢得了员工和客户的心,

but made an incremental sales of more than 1.4 billion dollars in 2022 alone.

但仅2022年就增加了超过14亿美元的销售额。

Now ultimately beyond governments and companies, the real change must come from all of us.

现在,真正的改变最终不仅仅是政府和公司,必须来自我们所有人。

I've been trying to invest in my own skills and not worry too much about my pretty slides and AI,

我一直在努力投资于自己的技能,而不是太担心我漂亮的幻灯片和人工智能,

and to model the lifelong learning behavior to my six-year-old.

并为我六岁的孩子树立终身学习行为的模型。

He has this piggy bank that we call "my learning bank" to save money to learn new skills.

他有一个存钱罐,我们称之为“我的学习银行”,可以省钱学习新技能。

Very recently, we used our savings on a course for robotics for kids.

最近,我们用积蓄为儿童开设了机器人课程。

He just loves building things, I tell you.

我告诉你,他只是喜欢建造东西。

And he was very, very excited to show off the giraffe that he had built that could walk step by step.

他非常非常兴奋地展示了他建造的可以一步一步行走的长颈鹿。

And step by step is all we need to embrace the reskilling revolution.

我们需要一步一步地拥抱再培训革命。

Job evolution due to technology is just going to be this new reality of the world we have to live in.

技术带来的工作演变将成为我们必须生活的世界的新现实。

But we must embrace this not with fear and with skepticism, but with curiosity and optimism for building our skills again and again.

但我们不能带着恐惧和怀疑来接受这一点,而是带着好奇和乐观的态度,一次又一次地培养我们的技能。

Thank you.

谢谢


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