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对技术的未来的预测

发布者: 五毒 | 发布时间: 2024-7-7 23:28| 查看数: 67| 评论数: 0|

I'm a techno-optimist, but techno-optimism should be practiced with both empathy and care.

我是一个技术乐观主义者,但技术乐观主义应该以同理心和谨慎的态度来实践。

And I'm a believer in what is possible if you do it that way.

我相信,如果你这样做,什么是可能的。

First, I'm going to give you a word of warning.

首先,我要给你一个警告。

Experts extrapolate the past.

专家推断过去。

They prevent radical progress because they don't think nonlinearly.

他们阻止了根本性的进步,因为他们不进行非线性思考。

They don't think of the improbable.

他们不考虑不可能的事情。

I personally believe only the improbables are important.

我个人相信只有不可能的事情才重要。

We just don't know which improbable is important.

我们只是不知道哪一个不可能的可能性更重要。

Entrepreneurs, on the other hand, with a passion for a vision, they dream the dreams, and then are foolish enough, and we need more foolishness,

另一方面,企业家对愿景充满热情,他们梦想着梦想,然后就足够愚蠢了,我们需要更多的愚蠢,

to try and make those implausible dreams come true.

努力让那些难以置信的梦想成真。

That's what entrepreneurship is about, something I've loved my whole life.

这就是创业精神的意义,我一生都热爱这一点。

In the 40 years, I've been doing innovation and innovation only.

40年来,我一直在做创新,只做创新。

This may surprise people.

这可能会让人们感到惊讶。

I can't think of a single large social impact change that was driven by an expert in the field, possibly with the exception of biotechnology,

我想不出有哪个重大的社会影响变化是由该领域的专家推动的,可能除了生物技术,

that's driven by an expert, by a large institution, a large non-founder-led company.

这是由一位专家、一家大型机构、一家非创始人领导的大型公司推动的。

Think about it.

想想吧。

In 40 years, not one example.

40年来,没有一个例子。

Whether you look at SpaceX, or electric cars or Uber, not one example.

无论你看SpaceX、电动汽车还是Uber,都不是一个例子。

The earliest one I could think of was credit cards in the early 70s, when Bank of America put credit on plastic.

我能想到的最早是70年代初的信用卡,当时美国银行将信贷放在塑料上。

So what is this plausible world?

那么这个看似合理的世界是什么呢?

I'll go through a dozen scenarios that I believe most experts will pooh-pooh.

我将经历十几种情况,我相信大多数专家都会嗤之以鼻。

Most expertise enabled by AI will be free.

人工智能提供的大多数专业知识都是免费的。

I'm most excited that every human being on the planet can have, 24/7, a free doctor, primary care in a very expansive way.

我最兴奋的是,地球上的每个人都可以以非常广泛的方式获得24/7免费医生和初级保健。

That every child can have a free tutor in a very available, accessible way, and these will be near free.

每个孩子都可以以一种非常可用、方便的方式拥有一名免费的导师,而且这些都是近乎免费的。

It doesn't matter, other expertise whether you're looking at structural engineers or oncologists, most expertise will be near free.

没关系,其他专业知识无论您是在寻找结构工程师还是肿瘤学家,大多数专业知识都几乎是免费的。

The cost of computing.

计算成本。

Most labor will also be free.

大多数劳动力也将是免费的。

I can imagine a billion bipedal robots doing more work than all of human labor does today, freeing humans from the servitude of some of the jobs.

我可以想象,十亿个两足机器人所做的工作比今天所有人类劳动所做的还要多,将人类从某些工作的奴役中解放出来。

Working at General Motors on an assembly line for eight hours a day, doing the same thing for 30 years.

在通用汽车的装配线上每天工作8小时,做了30年同样的事情。

That's not a job.

那不是工作。

That's almost slavery.

这几乎是奴隶制。

I do believe we will have enough abundance to take care of everybody who is displaced.

我确实相信我们将有足够的财富来照顾每个流离失所的人。

And that's where the empathy part of techno-optimism comes in.

这就是技术乐观主义的移情作用所在。

We will have enough for redistribution to happen.

我们将有足够的资金来进行重新分配。

Programming will be near free also.

编程也将近乎免费。

And though we think of computers as pervasive today, I think they'll be much more prevalent, much more pervasive and expansive.

尽管我们认为计算机今天无处不在,但我认为它们将会更加普遍、更加普遍和广泛。

In fact, I think we will think of computers almost like a utility.

事实上,我认为我们几乎会将计算机视为一个公用事业。

How many of you think about electricity?

你们中有多少人考虑过电力?

That's how it will be in the background, not in our face.

这就是它在背景中的样子,而不是在我们面前的样子。

And like this little Rabbit device I have in my hand, we'll just talk to it.

就像我手里的这个小兔子设备一样,我们只需与它交谈即可。

It'll understand human instruction.

它会理解人类的指令。

Computers will adapt to humans.

计算机将适应人类。

We won't have to have humans learn computer.

我们不必让人类学习计算机。

Five years ago, when I first spoke at a conference in Toronto on the role AI will play in music generation, I was met with skepticism.

五年前,当我第一次在多伦多的一次会议上谈论人工智能在音乐生成中所扮演的角色时,我遭到了怀疑。

In fact, derision.

事实上,是嘲笑。

Whether it's AI alone or AI plus humans, the level of creativity in entertainment and design will dramatically go up.

无论是人工智能单独还是人工智能加人类,娱乐和设计的创造力水平都会大幅提高。

The level of diversity of these things will go up dramatically.

这些事物的多样性水平将会急剧上升。

I'm excited about that.

我对此很兴奋。

Surprisingly, internet access will mostly be by agents.

令人惊讶的是,互联网访问主要由代理商进行。

Billions of agents running around doing things for us humans.

数十亿名特工四处奔走,为我们人类做事。

Medicine is my other favorite.

医学是我的另一个最爱。

We have pretty good medicine today, but we have the practice of medicine, and it will change to the science of medicine.

今天我们有相当好的医学,但我们有医学实践,它将转变为医学科学。

It will change from what is mostly sick care today, we apply medicine when people are sick, to health care to prevent sickness.

它将从今天主要的疾病护理(我们在人们生病时使用药物)转变为预防疾病的医疗保健。

It's a shame that in this day and age, most people who get a heart attack discover they have cardiac disease by having a heart attack,

遗憾的是,在当今这个时代,大多数心脏病发作的人都是通过心脏病发作发现自己患有心脏病的,

not 20 years earlier when that disease started.

早在20年前,这种疾病就开始了。

That won't happen.

那时候不会发现有。

Food.

食物。

We will have new types of proteins, which we need, and new kinds of fertilizer essential to agriculture.

我们将拥有我们所需的新型蛋白质,以及农业所必需的新型肥料。

RuBisCO is the most prevalent protein on the planet.

RuBisCO是地球上最普遍的蛋白质。

Every place you see green, there is RuBisCO behind that chlorophyll, or almost everywhere.

每个你看到绿色的地方,在这些叶子后面都有RuBisCO,或者几乎无处不在。

There's a few exceptions.

有一些例外。

And we will have much more environmentally better proteins than either plant proteins, and possibly better than corn and soy.

我们将拥有比任何一种植物蛋白更多的对环境更好的蛋白质,甚至可能比玉米和大豆更好。

So I'm excited about that, and greener fertilizer.

所以我对此感到兴奋,还有更环保的肥料。

Oh, my favorite.

哦,我的最爱。

Experts completely disagree with me when I say this.

当我这么说时,专家们完全不同意我的观点。

We can, in the next 25 years, replace most cars in most cities.

在未来25年内,我们可以取代大多数城市的大多数汽车。

Why?

为什么?

By making transit faster than a chauffeured car, cheaper than a public transit system and pervasive, any time on demand.

通过使交通比有司机的汽车更快,比公共交通系统更便宜,并且可以随时按需普及。

And yes, we can do it.

是的,我们可以做到。

In fact, we are building the first one of these public transit systems in San Jose today.

事实上,我们今天正在圣何塞建造第一个公共交通系统。

Another one of these, flying at almost 4000 mph.

其中另一架,飞行速度接近4000英里/小时。

We will be able to fly from New York to London for lunch.

我们将能够从纽约飞往伦敦吃午餐。

It will make the world a much closer place.

它将使世界变得更加亲密。

And we fret a lot about power, and we think solar and wind are the solution.

我们对电力非常担心,我们认为太阳能和风能是解决方案。

They're great solutions I've been advocating for the last 20 years.

它们是我过去20年来一直倡导的伟大解决方案。

But fusion power will replace most coal and natural gas power plants today.

但聚变发电将取代当今大多数煤炭和天然气发电厂。

Again, people say we can't build that many.

再次,人们说我们不能建造那么多。

We can if we are smart, if we just replace their boilers, or maybe the boilers and their turbines.

如果我们聪明的话,我们可以更换他们的锅炉,或者锅炉和涡轮机。

In fact, all those plants will probably be retrofitted with fusion, possibly with superhot geothermal, not the kind of geothermal you've heard about,

事实上,所有这些工厂都可能会用聚变改造,可能用超热地热,而不是你听说过的那种地热,

even heard about at TED.

甚至在TED上听说过。

But much hotter, better, more efficient geothermal.

但地热温度更高、更好、更高效。

Doomers say we don't have enough resources like lithium and copper.

末日论者说我们没有足够的锂和铜等资源。

In fact, I say we haven't started to look.

事实上,我说我们还没有开始看。

In fact, we haven't started to develop the technologies that will let us look a kilometer below the surface.

事实上,我们还没有开始开发让我们观察地表下一公里的技术。

We are well on our way, though.

不过,我们已经上路了。

There will be carbon solutions for everything.

一切都会有碳解决方案。

Entrepreneurs are working on this.

企业家正在努力解决这一问题。

There's only a dozen major emitter categories, and I wrote a blog on it about two years ago.

只有十几个主要的发射者类别,大约两年前我写了一篇关于它的博客。

And it only takes one entrepreneur to tackle each of these categories, so a dozen instigators can change the world of climate.

只需要一名企业家就能解决这些类别中的每一个问题,因此十几个煽动者就可以改变气候世界。

In fact, we inaugurated last week the first cement plant in California which from the same amount of limestone produces twice the amount of cement by capturing the carbon dioxide and putting it into product.

事实上,我们上周在加利福尼亚州落成了第一家水泥厂,该厂通过捕获二氧化碳并将其转化为产品,用等量的石灰石生产两倍数量的水泥。

You repurpose existing plants, upgrade them like you would coal plants and natural gas plants,

你重新利用现有工厂,像燃煤工厂和天然气工厂一样升级它们,

and you increase the level of product while decreasing the cost per ton.

提高产品水平,同时降低每吨成本。

That's what makes these things scalable.

这就是这些东西具有可扩展性的原因。

All we need is a few entrepreneurs who will imagine the impossible, dream the dreams, and then be foolish enough to make them come true.

我们所需要的只是一些企业家,他们会想象不可能的事情,梦想,然后愚蠢地让梦想成真。

There's lots of reasons this won't happen, but I won't delve into them.

这种情况不会发生的原因有很多,但我不会深入探讨。

But I do think a really abundant world is possible.

但我确实认为一个真正丰富的世界是可能的。

It only takes a few motivated, impassioned entrepreneurs to make it happen.

只需要少数积极进取、热情洋溢的企业家就能实现这一目标。

Thank you.

谢谢。


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