What's the most important century in human history?

人类历史上最重要的世纪是哪一个？

Some might argue it's a period of extensive military campaigning, like Alexander the Great's in the 300s BCE,

有些人可能认为是大范围军事行动的时期，像亚历山大大帝 在公元前 300 年，

which reshaped political and cultural borders.

重塑了政治和文化边界。

Others might cite the emergence of a major religion, such as Islam in the 7th century, which codified and spread values across such borders.

另一些人可能会举例主流宗教的兴起，像是七世纪的伊斯兰教，定义了价值观并传播它越过这些边界。

Or perhaps it's the Industrial Revolution of the 1700s that transformed global commerce and redefined humanity's relationship with labor.

又或许是十七世纪的工业革命改变了全球商业 并重新定义了人类与劳动力的联系。

Whatever the answer,

不论答案如何

it seems like any century vying for that top spot is at a moment of great change— when the actions of our ancestors shifted humanity's trajectory for centuries to come.

无论答案如何，似乎任何一个争夺这个位置的世纪 身处巨变之中—— 当我们祖先的作为 改变了人类社会的轨迹持续到未来的数个世纪里。

So if this is our metric, is it possible that right now— this century— is the most important one yet?

因此，如果这是我们的衡量标准， 有没有可能目前——这个世纪—— 是最重要的一个呢？

The 21st century has already proven to be a period of rapid technological growth.

21 世纪已经被证明是一段技术快速发展的时期。

Phones and computers have accelerated the pace of life.

手机和电脑加快了人们的生活节奏。

And we're likely on the cusp of developing new transformative technologies, like advanced artificial intelligence,

而我们很可能处在研发新型变革性技术的节骨眼上，像是先进的人工智能，

that could entirely change the way people live.

将彻底改变人们的生活方式。

Meanwhile, many technologies we already have contribute to humanity's unprecedented levels of existential risk— that's the risk of our species going extinct or experiencing some kind of disaster that permanently limits humanity's ability to grow and thrive.

同时，许多我们已经拥有的技术导致了人类前所未有的生存风险—— 即我们作为物种灭绝的风险，或者经历某种灾难，长远地 限制人类生存和发展的能力。

The invention of the atomic bomb marked a major rise in existential risk, and since then we've only increased the odds against us.

原子弹的发明意味着生存风险大幅上升，而从那时起，我们更加深了自身所处的危险。

It's profoundly difficult to estimate the odds of an existential collapse occurring this century.

很难去估算出本世纪发生生存崩塌的概率。

Very rough guesses put the risk of existential catastrophe due to nuclear winter and climate change at around 0.1%,

非常粗略的分析将生存灾难的概率 关系到核冬天和气候变化定在 0.1% 左右，

with the odds of a pandemic causing the same kind of collapse at a frightening 3%.

而一场疾病大流行导致类似灾难的概率是可怕的 3%。

Given that any of these disasters could mean the end of life as we know it, these aren't exactly small figures,

由于这些灾难中的任何一个都意味着我们所理解的生命的终结，这些数字不小，

And it's possible this century could see the rise of new technologies that introduce more existential risks.

而且本世纪有可能见证 新技术的崛起带来更多的生存风险。

AI experts have a wide range of estimates regarding when artificial general intelligence will emerge, but according to some surveys,

人工智能专家们有一个 大约的估计关于人工通用智能出现的时间，但一些调查显示 ，

many believe it could happen this century.

许多人认为这可能会在本世纪发生。

Currently, we have relatively narrow forms of artificial intelligence, which are designed to do specific tasks like play chess or recognize faces.

目前，我们有 定义狭隘的人工智能，它们被设计用来完成特定的任务如下棋或识别人脸。

Even narrow AIs that do creative work are limited to their singular specialty.

即使是从事创造工作的狭义人工智能也只限于他们的单个专业。

But artificial general intelligences, or AGIs, would be able to adapt to and perform any number of tasks, quickly outpacing their human counterparts.

但人工通用智能，即 AGI，将能够适应并执行任何项任务，迅速胜过 他们的人类同行。

There are a huge variety of guesses about what AGI could look like,

有大量的猜测关于 AGI 可能看起来的样子，

and what it would mean for humanity to share the Earth with another sentient entity.

以及人类选择与另一个有意识的实体共享地球将意味着什么。

AGIs might help us achieve our goals, they might regard us as inconsequential, or, they might see us as an obstacle to swiftly remove.

AGI 可能会帮助我们实现我们的目标，他们可能认为我们无关紧要， 或者，他们可能把我们看作需要迅速清除的障碍。

So in terms of existential risk, it's imperative the values of this new technology align with our own.

因此，在生存风险方面，这一新技术的价值观必须与我们的价值观相一致。

This is an incredibly difficult philosophical and engineering challenge that will require a lot of delicate, thoughtful work.

这是一个令人难以置信 哲学和工程方面的困难挑战，需要大量精细、周到的工作。

Yet, even if we succeed, AGI could still lead to another complicated outcome.

然而，即使我们成功了，AGI 仍可能引出另一个复杂的结果。

Let's imagine an AGI emerges with deep respect for human life and a desire to solve all humanity's troubles.

让我们假设一个带着对人类高度尊重 AGI 的出现并希望解决所有人类的麻烦。

But to avoid becoming misaligned, it's been developed to be incredibly rigid about its beliefs.

但为了避免错误观点， 它被研发成对其信仰无比的僵化。

If these machines became the dominant power on Earth, their strict values might become hegemonic,

如果这些机器成为成为地球上的主导力量，他们严格的价值观可能成为霸权主义，

locking humanity into one ideology that would be incredibly resistant to change.

将人类锁定在一种意识形态中，并非常抵触变化。

History has taught us that no matter how enlightened a civilization thinks they are, they are rarely up to the moral standards of later generations.

历史已经告诉我们无论一种文明认为其多么发达，他们很少能达到未来的道德标准。

And this kind of value lock in could permanently distort or constrain humanity's moral growth.

而这种价值锁定的方式 可能会永久性地扭曲或限制人类道德观的演化。

There's a ton of uncertainty around AGI, and it's profoundly difficult to predict how any existential risks will play out over the next century.

围绕 AGI 有大量的不确定性，而且很难预测任何生存风险会怎么在下个世纪中体现。

It's also possible that new, more pressing concerns might render these risks moot.

也有可能更新、更加紧迫的问题可能会使这些风险变得微不足道。

But even if we can't definitively say that ours is the most important century,

但是，即使我们无法确定现在是最重要的世纪，

it still seems like the decisions we make might have a major impact on humanity's future.

我们所做的决定多少会对人类未来 产生巨大影响。

So maybe we should all live like the future depends on us— because actually, it just might.

所以，也许我们该像未来取决于我们一般生活—— 因为也许确实是这样。