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与其害怕人工智能,不如跟它合作

发布者: 五毒 | 发布时间: 2022-9-19 22:00| 查看数: 44| 评论数: 0|



In 1985, when at age 22, I became the World Chess Champion after beating Anatoly Karpov. Earlier that year, I played what is called simultaneous exhibition against 32 of the world's best chess-playing machines in Hamburg, Germany. I won all the games, and then it was not considered much of a surprise that I could beat 32 computers at the same time. To me, that was the golden age. Machines were weak, and my hair was strong.

1985年,当时22岁的我击败了阿纳托利·卡尔波夫,成为国际象棋世界冠军。这一年的早些时候,在德国汉堡,我和32台世界顶尖级别的电脑进行了一场国际象棋“车轮战”。我赢得了所有的对弈,能够同时打败32台电脑。我认为这是我的黄金时代。那会儿的电脑实力还弱,我的头发还挺茂盛。

Just 12 years later, I was fighting for my life against just one computer in a match called by the cover of "Newsweek" "The Brain's Last Stand." No pressure.From mythology to science fiction, human versus machine has been often portrayed as a matter of life and death.John Henry, called the steel-driving man in the 19th century African American folk legend, was pitted in a race against a steam-powered hammer bashing a tunnel through mountain rock.

就在12年后,我拼劲全力与一台电脑对弈,这场对弈,《新闻周刊》的封面报道称之为“人脑的背水一战”。别有压力。从神话到科幻,人类对弈电脑经常被形容为生死攸关的问题。19世纪非洲裔美国人,民间传说中的钢铁勇士。在开凿山石隧道时与一台蒸汽动力锤进行了生死较量。

John Henry's legend is a part of a long historical narrative pitting humanity versus technology. And this competitive rhetoric is standard now. We are in a race against the machines, in a fight or even in a war. Jobs are being killed off. People are being replaced as if they had vanished from the Earth. It's enough to think that the movies like "The Terminator" or "The Matrix" are nonfiction. There are very few instances of an arena where the human body and mind can compete on equal terms with a computer or a robot.

约翰·亨利的传奇故事是历史长河中人类与科技对弈的一部分。而现在这种对弈已是司空见惯了。我们正在与机器竞争,这是一场对抗,更可能是一场战争。工作机会正在消失。人们被机器所取代,就好像他们正从地球上消失。这一切足以让我们认为电影《终结者》和《黑客帝国》并不是虚构。在很少的情况下才能看到人类的身体和脑子可以与电脑或是机器人平分秋色。

Actually, I wish there were a few more. Instead, it was my blessing and my curse to literally become the proverbial man in the man versus machine competition that everybody is still talking about. In the most famous human-machine competition since John Henry, I played two matches against the IBM supercomputer, Deep Blue. Nobody remembers that I won the first match.In Philadelphia, before losing the rematch the following year in New York. But I guess that's fair.

事实上,我希望这种情况能更多些。然而,我成为人们仍在谈论的人类与机器的对抗中的那个传奇人物,这既是我的福祉,也是对我的诅咒。以来的人与机器的较量中,我和IBM的超级电脑深蓝,对弈过两次。没人记得我赢了第一场比赛。那是在费城。也就是我输掉纽约那场的前一年。但我觉得这也没什么。

There is no day in history, special calendar entry for all the people who failed to climb Mt. Everest before Sir Edmund Hillary and Tenzing Norgay made it to the top. And in 1997, I was still the world champion when chess computers finally came of age. I was Mt. Everest, and Deep Blue reached the summit. I should say of course, not that Deep Blue did it, but its human creators -- Anantharaman, Campbell, Hoane, Hsu. Hats off to them.As always, machine's triumph was a human triumph, something we tend to forget when humans are surpassed by our own creations.

埃德蒙·希拉里爵士和丹增·诺盖成功登顶珠峰前,历史上从未有一天是为登顶失败的人而记载的特殊的日子。在1997年会下棋的电脑问世之时,我仍然是世界冠军。我就是那珠穆朗玛峰,而深蓝成功登顶。我应该说,当然了,并不是深蓝成功了,而是创造深蓝的人——Anantharaman,Campbell,Hoane,Hsu。向他们脱帽致敬。一如既往,机器的胜利就是人类的胜利,当人类被自己的创造超越后,这一点就常常被遗忘了。

Deep Blue was victorious, but was it intelligent? No, no it wasn't, at least not in the way Alan Turing and other founders of computer science had hoped. It turned out that chess could be crunched by brute force, once hardware got fast enough and algorithms got smart enough. Although by the definition of the output, grandmaster-level chess, Deep Blue was intelligent. But even at the incredible speed, 200 million positions per second, Deep Blue's method provided little of the dreamed-of insight into the mysteries of human intelligence.

深蓝取得了胜利,但是,是它聪明吗?不,并不是,至少不是像AlanTuring和其他计算科学的奠基人希望的那样。事实证明,一旦电脑软件运行的够快,算法变得灵活起来,象棋的下法就可以被轻而易举地算出。尽管按照输出的定义,按大师级别来算,深蓝算得上是高手。但是即使以每秒2亿次的惊人计算速度,深蓝的方法也只探索了人类智慧谜题中的一丁点儿。

Soon, machines will be taxi drivers and doctors and professors, but will they be "intelligent?" I would rather leave these definitions to the philosophers and to the dictionary. What really matters is how we humans feel about living and working with these machines. When I first met Deep Blue in 1996 in February, I had been the world champion for more than 10 years, and I had played 182 world championship games and hundreds of games against other top players in other competitions. I knew what to expect from my opponents and what to expect from myself.

很快,机器就可以成为出租车司机、医生、教授,但是他们会变得“有智慧”吗?我宁愿将这些定义留给哲学家或者是字典。真正重要的是,我们人类与电脑机器共存会是怎样的感受。当我在1996年2月第一次见到深蓝时,我已经当了十多年的世界冠军,我参加了182场世界锦标赛,并在其他比赛中与其他顶级选手打了数百场比赛。我知道我的对手会是什么样子,他们也知道我的情况。

I was used to measure their moves and to gauge their emotional state by watching their body language and looking into their eyes. And then I sat across the chessboard from Deep Blue. I immediately sensed something new, something unsettling. You might experience a similar feeling the first time you ride in a driverless car or the first time your new computer manager issues an order at work. But when I sat at that first game, I couldn't be sure what is this thing capable of. Technology can advance in leaps, and IBM had invested heavily. I lost that game.

我习惯于通过观察他们的肢体语言和眼神,考量他们的棋步,摸索他们的心态。而当我坐在深蓝的对面时,我立刻感受到了莫名的气息,有些不安。你可能有过类似的感受,当你第一次坐进一辆无人驾驶汽车,或者是你的电计算机老板在工作中派给你一个任务。在第一场对弈时,我无法确定,这东西能够做什么。技术可以跨越式前进,IBM花了重金。我输掉了那场比赛。

And I couldn't help wondering, might it be invincible? Was my beloved game of chess over? These were human doubts, human fears, and the only thing I knew for sure was that my opponent Deep Blue had no such worries at all. I fought back after this devastating blow to win the first match, but the writing was on the wall. I eventually lost to the machine but I didn't suffer the fate of John Henry who won but died with his hammer in his hand. It turned out that the world of chess still wanted to have a human chess champion.

我不禁在想,它会不会是无敌的?我深爱的象棋生涯完蛋了吗?这些都是人类的怀疑,人类的恐惧,而我唯一确定的是,我的对手深蓝根本没有这样的担忧。在这场惨败后我卷土重来,赢下了第一场比赛,但很明显,我注定会失败。我最终输给了机器,但我没有遭受约翰·亨利那样的命运,这位凿山工赢得了比赛,但却丢了性命,死的时候手里还攥着铁锤。但是象棋世界还是想要人类象棋冠军。

And even today, when a free chess app on the latest mobile phone is stronger than Deep Blue, people are still playing chess, even more than ever before. Doomsayers predicted that nobody would touch the game that could be conquered by the machine, and they were wrong, proven wrong, but doomsaying has always been a popular pastime when it comes to technology. What I learned from my own experience is that we must face our fears if we want to get the most out of our technology, and we must conquer those fears if we want to get the best out of our humanity.

不过即便是今天,智能手机中的免费象棋软件都比深蓝还要聪明,人们依然在下象棋,对它的兴趣不减反增。悲观者说没有人会再碰可以被机器打败的游戏,而他们错了,事实已经证明了,但是一谈起科技,末日说一直是很流行的消遣说法。我从自身的经历中所学到就是,如果我们要充分地利用科技,就要面对我们的恐惧,如果我们要最大化地激发人类的潜能,就必须战胜我们的恐惧感。

While licking my wounds, I got a lot of inspiration from my battles against Deep Blue. As the old Russian saying goes, if you can't beat them, join them. Then I thought, what if I could play with a computer -- together with a computer at my side, combining our strengths, human intuition plus machine's calculation, human strategy, machine tactics, human experience, machine's memory. Could it be the perfect game ever played? My idea came to life in 1998 under the name of Advanced Chess when I played this human-plus-machine competition against another elite player.

当我自省时,我从和深蓝的对战中获得了很多灵感。正如古老的俄罗斯谚语所说:如果你不能打败他们,就加入他们。后来,我就想如果我能和电脑合作,结合我们的优点,人类的直觉和电脑的计算,人类的策略和电脑的战术,人类的经验和电脑的记忆。会不会打一场最完美的比赛呢?1998年,在一个高阶象棋赛中我的想法实现了,我利用人机结合的方式跟另一位顶尖棋手进行了对弈。

But in this first experiment, we both failed to combine human and machine skills effectively. Advanced Chess found its home on the internet, and in 2005, a so-called freestyle chess tournament produced a revelation. A team of grandmasters and top machines participated, but the winners were not grandmasters, not a supercomputer. The winners were a pair of amateur American chess players operating three ordinary PCs at the same time. Their skill of coaching their machines effectively counteracted the superior chess knowledge of their grandmaster opponents and much greater computational power of others.

但是在第一次试验里,我们都没能有效的结合人和机器的技能。高阶象棋发迹于网络,在2005年,一个被称为自由式象棋竞标赛的比赛诞生了。一队顶尖高手和顶级电脑参赛了,但是冠军并不是顶尖高手,也不是超级电脑。冠军是一对同时在操作三台普通电脑的业余美国棋手。他们有效操作电脑的技能胜过了他们的大师级对手超高的象棋知识,也胜过了电脑更强大的计算能力。

And I reached this formulation. A weak human player plus a machine plus a better process is superior to a very powerful machine alone. but more remarkably, is superior to a strong human player plus machine and an inferior process. This convinced me that we would need better interfaces to help us coach our machines towards more useful intelligence. Human plus machine isn't the future, it's the present. Everybody that's used online translation to get the gist of a news article from a foreign newspaper, knowing its far from perfect.

我写出了这个公式。一个不强的人类棋手加上一台机器,加上一个更好的处理器要好过一台非常强大的机器本身,但更值得注意的是,也会超过一个强大的人类棋手加上机器,和一个较差的处理器。这让我确信我们需要更好的界面去帮助我们的电脑学习,来实现更有用的智能。人类与电脑的结合并不是将来时,而是现在时。所有使用在线翻译来了解外国报纸新闻概要的人都知道这些软件远远不够完美。

Then we use our human experience to make sense out of that, and then the machine learns from our corrections. This model is spreading and investing in medical diagnosis, security analysis. The machine crunches data, calculates probabilities, gets 80 percent of the way, 90 percent, making it easier for analysis and decision-making of the human party. But you are not going to send your kids to school in a self-driving car with 90 percent accuracy, even with 99 percent. So we need a leap forward to add a few more crucial decimal places.

然后我们结合我们的人类经验让这变得合理,而电脑从我们的更改中学习升级。这种模式广泛应用于医疗诊断,证券分析。机器分析数据计算出概率,完成了百分之八,九十的工作,使得分析和决策对人类来说更加简单。但是你不会用准确度90%,甚至99%的无人驾驶汽车把你的孩子送到学校去。所以我们需要跨越式前进,提高准确度。

Twenty years after my match with Deep Blue, second match, this sensational "The Brain's Last Stand" headline has become commonplace as intelligent machines move in every sector, seemingly every day. But unlike in the past, when machines replaced farm animals, manual labor, now they are coming after people with college degrees and political influence. And as someone who fought machines and lost, I am here to tell you this is excellent, excellent news. Eventually, every profession will have to feel these pressures or else it will mean humanity has ceased to make progress.

在我和深蓝对弈二十年之后,第二场比赛,这个耸人听闻的标题,“人脑的背水一战”已经变得司空见惯了,因为智能机器在每个领域,每一天都在工作。但与过去不同,那时机器替代的是农场动物,劳工,现在它们的目标是替代有大学学位和政治影响力的人们。作为曾经对抗过机器而且失败了的人,我在这里告诉你们,这是非常非常棒的消息。最终,每个职业都不得不感受这种压力,否则就意味着人类已经停止前进了。

We don't get to choose when and where technological progress stops. We cannot slow down. In fact, we have to speed up. Our technology excels at removing difficulties and uncertainties from our lives, and so we must seek out ever more difficult, ever more uncertain challenges. Machines have calculations. We have understanding. Machines have instructions. We have purpose. Machines have objectivity. We have passion. We should not worry about what our machines can do today.

技术进步的脚步何时何地停止,我们无从选择。我们无法放缓它的脚步。现实是,我们要加速前进。科学技术擅长解决我们生活中的困难和不确定性,所以我们必须面对更加困难,更加不确定的挑战。机器可以计算。而我们有理解力。机器遵从指令。我们拥有目标。机器具有客观性。我们有激情。我们不应该为机器现在可以做什么而感到担心。

Instead, we should worry about what they still cannot do today, because we will need the help of the new, intelligent machines to turn our grandest dreams into reality. And if we fail, if we fail, it's not because our machines are too intelligent, or not intelligent enough. If we fail, it's because we grew complacent and limited our ambitions. Our humanity is not defined by any skill, like swinging a hammer or even playing chess. There's one thing only a human can do. That's dream. So let us dream big. Thank you.

相反,我们应该为它们今日仍不能做的感到担心,因为我们需要新的智能机器的帮助,来实现我们宏伟的梦想。如果我们失败的话,如果我们失败,不是因为我们的机器太聪明了,或不够聪明。如果我们失败了,是因为我们变得自满,限制了我们的理想抱负。我们人类不由任何技能定义,就像敲锤子或是下象棋。有一件事情只有人类能做。那就是梦想。让我们的梦想更远大一些吧。谢谢。


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