英语家园

 找回密码
 注册

QQ登录

只需一步,快速开始

扫描二维码登录本站

快速提高英语水平本广告位招租

社区广播台

查看: 1345|回复: 1
收起左侧

股市债市双俯冲 创危机以来新低

[复制链接]
发表于 2008-11-20 17:56:29 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
Stocks, Bonds Tumble to New Crisis Lows

Stock and bond markets fell to their lowest levels since the outbreak of the economic crisis, as worries about rising defaults by borrowers drove a new wave of concern about the financial system's health.

The stock market's fall to a 5½-year low was led by the credit markets, where prices of corporate and real-estate bonds fell to their lowest levels in more than 20 years.

Banks, brokers and insurance companies, all big holders of these bonds, bore the brunt of the selling, falling more than 10% overall. Citigroup Inc. lost nearly a quarter of its value in its biggest one-day decline ever, adding to the woes of the bank and its chief executive officer, Vikram Pandit. Citigroup shares last hit this price on May 2, 1995.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 427.47 points, or 5.1%, to 7997.28, its lowest close since March 31, 2003. The market is now down 43.5% from its all-time high hit just over a year ago. The recent decline wipes out nearly all the gains from the last bull market, which lasted from October 2002 to October 2007.

At the market's peak, financial stocks were the biggest sector, accounting for a fifth of the market's value. After Wednesday's declines, the sector was the fifth biggest, after basic consumer goods, and made up only 12% of the market's value.

In a sign of the nervousness in the markets, investors once again are willing to accept nearly no interest in order to hold the safest securities around -- short-term Treasury bills. The yield on the three-month T-bill Wednesday reached 0.07%, its lowest level since mid-September, amid a wave of failures in the financial system.

Money managers around the world are reporting that investors are clamoring to cash out of risky assets. That is leading them to sell stocks and bonds to raise the cash needed to repay their investors. Some of these investors, especially hedge funds, used borrowed money to buy assets, adding to the pressure to sell.

'It's a toxic mix when everyone that borrowed money has to unwind their positions and sell assets,' says Thomas Priore, chief executive of ICP Capital, a New York fixed-income investment firm. Mr. Priore says that he recently met with around 80 investors during a recent trip to Europe, 'and nearly all of them talked about the sizable redemption requests they have made.'

Wednesday offered fresh grim economic news as well. Top executives from the flailing U.S. auto industry suffered through a second day of grilling by lawmakers, who appeared unlikely to offer a rescue to the sector. Minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting showed that policymakers expect the economy to be in recession through the middle of next year, and maybe longer.

By some measures, bonds were hit harder than stocks. Worries about a slowing economy and the U.S. government's recent decision to scrap its plan to purchase troubled assets from financial firms helped drive the selloff.

The hardest-hit market on Wednesday was for debt tied to shopping malls, office buildings and other commercial property. The value of bonds tied to such property hit new lows, pulling down shares of real-estate investment trusts, banks and insurance companies that own these securities. Bonds issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac also weakened. Yields on their two-year notes, which move in the opposite direction of prices, rose to around 1.8 percentage point above yields on Treasury securities -- a wider gap than before both companies were taken over by the government in September.

Unrelenting declines in corporate 'junk' bonds have pushed yields on these riskier securities to over 20% on average, a record. Many hedge funds have been forced by their lenders to sell junk bonds and corporate loans to meet demands that they post cash backing for their borrowings, and they don't see a respite anytime soon.

Meanwhile, as more financial institutions try to offset the risk of their investments in bonds and other forms of debt, the cost of insuring such debts is spiking. It now costs more to insure a wide range of investment-grade corporate debt than during the jittery days after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed in mid-September. Even Berkshire Hathaway Inc., considered one of America's strongest companies, saw an increase in the cost of protecting against its obligations.

'Selling is begetting more selling as we enter the last 45 gory days of 2008,' says Geoffrey Gwin, principal of Group G Capital Partners, a New York credit hedge fund.

Some of the steep price declines can be traced to last week's decision by the Treasury to scrap its plan to purchase troubled assets from financial institutions. That effectively pulled the rug out from under parts of the mortgage market, because investors had expected the plan to help support the values of securities tied to commercial mortgages and home loans.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson defended the switch, saying in an interview that putting capital into financial institutions 'is more powerful, but then these institutions are still clogged with these assets. They're going to need to write them down, sell them over time, take losses.'

The Treasury is working with the Federal Reserve to develop a new lending facility that would essentially provide financing for investors who want to buy assets securities backed by credit cards, auto loans and mortgages.

Such a program would allow investors to 'borrow against high-quality mortgages,' and create a market for the distressed assets, he said.

Stocks also suffered a broad decline. The Standard & Poor's 500 stock index fell 52.54 points, or 6.12%, to 806.58, putting it just 30 points above its low from the last bear market, reached in October 2002.

General Motors Corp. fell 30 cents to $2.79, its lowest close since Jan. 20, 1943, based on data from the CRSP U.S. Stock Database. Ford Motor Co. fell 42 cents to $1.26, its lowest close since Nov. 24, 1982.

Compounding matters is the approaching year-end. That's leading commercial banks to cut back on lending and hoard cash in order to shore up their balance sheets and improve their financial picture going into the next fiscal year.

The $800 billion market for commercial mortgage-backed securities is the latest shoe to drop. The likely default of two large loans made by J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. last year totaling $334 million added to worries about surging defaults on commercial real-estate loans. These loans had so far sailed through the weakening economy with few losses.

As of the third quarter, a dozen big banks -- including Citigroup, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Deutsche Bank AG -- had nearly $140 billion worth of commercial real-estate debt on their books. Companies with the biggest holdings in these areas were among the biggest decliners in the stock market.

The recent wave of turmoil has also led to disruptions in the world's largest safe haven: the $4.5 trillion market for U.S. Treasury securities. Foreign central banks and financial institutions are hoarding large quantities of Treasury notes, making it difficult for others to obtain these securities in the overnight lending markets.

Investors lend out Treasuries overnight in the so-called repo market, and get the bonds and a small interest payment back the next day. Now, in the past seven weeks, borrowers have been paying the interest but holding on to the bonds, leading to failures on over $1 trillion of loan agreements in that span, according to Federal Reserve data. As a result, Treasury holders are balking at lending, and the market is freezing up.

The high levels of failures in the repo market 'pose a risk to Treasury market function,' says William Dudley, who heads up the New York Fed's Markets Group. The Fed's markets group last week endorsed a plan to fix the problems with higher penalty rates for failure to deliver the bonds, among other initiatives.

上一篇:美国人重拾节俭传统
下一篇:花旗股价暴跌 投资者信心尽失

该用户从未汇报

 楼主| 发表于 2008-11-20 17:56:51 | 显示全部楼层
股市和债市跌至经济危机爆发以来的最低水平,对借款拖欠情况的种种担忧,给金融系统健康状况蒙上又一层阴影。

股市之所以创下五年半新低是因为受到了信用市场表现的拖累,公司债和地产相关债券均跌到了20多年来的最低水平。

大量持有此类债券的银行、券商以及保险公司均受困于此番抛压,其整体股价跌幅超过了10%。花旗集团(Citigroup)股价跌去将近四分之一,为该股史上最大单日跌幅,收盘创1995年5月2日以来新低;令人们对花旗以及首席执行长潘伟迪(Vikram Pandit)未来命运更感担忧。

道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数收盘跌427.47点,至7997.28点,跌幅5.1%;创2003年5月31日以来收盘新低。市场较1年前创下的历史最高水平已跌去了43.5%。近期的跌势已令上一轮牛市行情(2002年10月至2007年10月间)所录得的涨幅基本化为乌有。

在市况红红火火之时,金融类股曾是占据五分之一市值的最大板块。而在周三的暴跌之后,金融类股市值已被基本消费品类股赶超,排名跌至第五位,占总市值的比重也萎缩至12%。

投资者为了持有短期美国国债这一最安全的证券品种,就算几乎没有收益也在所不惜,市场中的紧张情绪可见一斑。周三,3个月期美国国债收益率报0.07%,创9月中旬、即金融企业破产案频发时以来的最低水平。

世界各地的投资经理均表示投资者都极力要求将高风险资产套现。为了满足投资者的赎回要求,基金经理们纷纷抛出股票和债券。有的投资者(特别是对冲基金)是在举债进行投资,这就加大了抛售的压力。

纽约固定收益投资公司ICP Capital的首席执行长托马斯·普里奥尔(Thomas Priore)说,当每一个借钱投资的人都不得不平仓、抛售资产时,就会造成雪上加霜的局面。他说自己近期到欧洲出差时接触了大约80位投资者,几乎每个投资都说自己已提出大规模的赎回要求。

周三还有一些负面的经济消息出炉。遭到重创的汽车业领导人连续第二天对国会议员展开游说,而后者似乎无意对这个行业出手相救。美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)最新的会议纪要显示决策者预计经济衰退将持续至明年年中,甚至会更长。

从某种角度衡量,债市遭到的打击甚于股市。对经济放缓的担忧以及美国政府近日对收购金融企业不良资产计划的搁置均加剧了债市的抛售。

周三,遭受最沉重打击的是与商场、办公楼及其他商务房产相关的债券。与此类地产有关的债券价格创下了新低,令那些持有该类别债券的房地产投资信托、银行及保险企业的股价随之走低。房利美(Fannie Mae)和房地美(Freddie Mac)所发债券亦双双下挫。其两年期债券的收益率较同期限美国国债的风险溢价升至约1.8个百分点,较9月份政府宣布接管两家公司之前均有所扩大。

垃圾级公司债价格的不断下挫致使其风险溢价较平均水平上浮了20%,创下历史纪录。许多对冲基金都在债主的压力下抛售了所持的垃圾级公司债和公司贷款,以满足偿债之需,而且短时间内这种现象也不会有所缓解。

同时,随着越来越多的金融机构试图抵消其在债券等其他形式债务中的投资风险,这类债务的保险成本也大幅飙升。如今,为各类投资级公司债券投保的成本比9月中旬雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)崩溃后动荡不安的时期还要高。即使是被视为美国最有实力公司之一的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway)的债务保险成本也上升了。

纽约信贷对冲基金Group G Capital Partners负责人格温(Geoffrey Gwin)说,随着我们进入2008年最后45个惨不忍睹的日子,抛售导致了恶性循环。

价格的急剧下滑原因之一是上周美国财政部决定取消从金融机构手中收购不良资产的计划。这实际上是给抵押贷款市场来了一计釜底抽薪,因为投资者本预计这项计划会有助于支撑商业抵押贷款和房屋贷款相关证券的价值。

财政部长鲍尔森(Henry Paulson)为计划的取消进行了辩护,他在采访中说,向金融机构注资虽然更有效,但是这样做却无法让这些机构摆脱不良资产的困扰;它们需要冲销不良资产、逐渐卖掉这些资产、承受损失。

财政部目前正与Fed联手研究制定一项新的借贷机制,其核心部分是向那些有意买进由信用卡、汽车贷款和住房抵押贷款担保的资产抵押证券的投资者提供融资。

他说,这一计划将允许投资者用高质量抵押贷款作担保进行贷款,从而为问题资产创建一个市场。

股市也经历了全面下挫。标准普尔500指数跌52.54点,至806.58点,跌幅6.12%,较2002年10月的最近一次熊市低点只高出30点。

通用汽车(General Motors)跌0.30美元,收于2.79美元;美国芝加哥大学证券价格研究中心(CRSP)美国股市数据库的信息显示,这一水平创下了1943年1月20日以来的最低收盘价。福特汽车(Ford Motor)跌0.42美元,至1.26美元,为1982年11月24日以来的最低收盘点位。

令情况更为复杂的是年底即将到来。每到这个时候商业银行都会削减借贷、囤积现金,以便增强资产负债表,改善年底的财务状况为下个财政年度作准备。

总值8,000亿美元的商业抵押贷款担保证券市场是又一坏消息的源头。摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.)去年总价3.34亿美元的两笔大规模贷款可能出现违约,进而增加了外界对商业房地产贷款违约剧增的担忧。尽管经济不断走软,这类贷款目前为止却几乎毫发无损。

截至第三季度,包括花旗、高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)和德意志银行(Deutsche Bank AG)在内的十几家大银行帐面上已经有近1,400亿美元的商业房地产债务。持有这类资产最多的公司都站到了股价大跌者的行列中。

最近的动荡还搅乱了全球最大的避风港──总值4.5万亿美元的美国国债市场。外国央行和金融机构大量囤积美国国债,令其他投资者难以在隔夜借贷市场上获得这类证券。

通常情况下,投资者在所谓的回购市场上隔夜借出美国国债,次日收回并获得一小笔利息收入。而现在据Fed的数据显示,在过去的七周中,借款人一直在支付利息,却不肯返还借入的美国国债,导致期间超过1万亿美元的贷款合同违约。结果是,美国国债持有者拒绝出借手中债券,市场进而冻结。

纽约联邦储备银行市场组负责人杜德利(William Dudley)说,回购市场的高违约率对国债市场的运转带来了风险。该小组上周批准了一项计划,其中的一项措施是通过提高相关违约罚款来解决问题。
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

随便看看 精彩图片 帖子导读 联系管理
快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表